TomTheTrader .: (6/28/2012 09:14) GM a rough start to the day in a slew of news events macro and micro
TomTheTrader .: (10:36) Long 25% here ES 1310.50
TomTheTrader .: (10:36) Traders
TomTheTrader .: (10:40) silver a great TELL
TomTheTrader .: (11:21) 1311.50 taking profits from 1310.50
TomTheTrader .: (11:21) we may have called another bottom ..let’s see
TomTheTrader .: (11:54) Nooners going to cash into 2nd half
TomTheTrader .: (11:54) e-mail sent
TomTheTrader .: (11:54) Cash
TomTheTrader .: (12:22) long 25% here 1311.50 stops 1308.00
TomTheTrader .: (12:22) Traders
TomTheTrader .: (12:52) 1312.00 exited with profits traders and Mini short term in cash
TomTheTrader .: (13:40) long BGU 100% Traders here at 68.98
TomTheTrader .: (14:02) 69.18 took profits here
TomTheTrader .: (14:13) mini will go long 25% here at 761.50 stops 757.20
TomTheTrader .: (14:14) MINI is long TF
TomTheTrader .: (14:15) exited TF here at 761.80
TomTheTrader .: (14:15) Flat Mini
TomTheTrader .: (14:15) will reenter
TomTheTrader .: (14:16) long MINI 25% here NQ 2506.50
TomTheTrader .: (14:16) stops 2500.00
TomTheTrader .: (14:22) NQ 2507.50 exited MINI
TomTheTrader .: (14:22) Flat Mini and Traders
TomTheTrader .: (14:35) MINI long TF 761.00 25%
TomTheTrader .: (14:36) 761.60 out
TomTheTrader .: (14:36) Mini flat
TomTheTrader .: (14:36) long 861 again 25% MINI
TomTheTrader .: (14:36) 761
TomTheTrader .: (14:37) sorry
TomTheTrader .: (14:37) stops 759.00
TomTheTrader .: (14:37) 25% 1 contract
TomTheTrader .: (14:41) 761.80 out
TomTheTrader .: (14:41) MINI Flat
TomTheTrader .: (14:42) Traders Flat Traders will go long 100% QQQ here at 61.60
TomTheTrader .: (14:57) QQQ stops breakeven Traders
TomTheTrader .: (14:57) 61.60 stops Traders
TomTheTrader .: (15:09) short 25% here ES 1312.75
TomTheTrader .: (15:09) MINI
TomTheTrader .: (15:10) 1312.00 out MINI Fklat
TomTheTrader .: (15:23) 61.80exit Traders QQQ 100% cash
TomTheTrader .: (15:58) Mini short 1324.00 25% stops 1326.00
TomTheTrader .: (15:58) 1323.25 covered
TomTheTrader .: (16:02) stop in tonight 9:00pm EST
TomTheTrader .: (20:49) Hedging behavior among speculators in stocks never spiked very high during the worst part of the recent correction, and has declined further over the past couple of weeks. We’ve never seen that during the past decade.
TomTheTrader .: (20:50) The majority of our indicators are in a holding pattern as stocks gyrate. We’re just not seeing much movement in either day-to-day short-term indicators or the latest updates of longer-term ones like individual investor sentiment or corporate insiders.
TomTheTrader .: (20:50) A gap down at the open, intraday sell-off and late-day recovery like we saw on Thursday hasn’t been a very reliable pattern. During bull markets, it has led to a positive return in the S&P only 42% of the time two and three days later. It was in line with random after that.
TomTheTrader .: (20:50) Single-day reversals like Thursday aren’t reliable patterns, especially when they don’t occur at multi-month price extremes. If anything, they’ve led to minor weakness in the very short-term, so we’re not putting a lot of weight on Thursday’s action. The risk level has been unchanged at 5 for five days straight, which usually leads to a pick-up in volatility. Our most sensitive indicators are perfectly neutral for the second day in a row, leaving no real edge again. There just isn’t much of a directional suggestion right now evident among the patterns and indicators we follow.
TomTheTrader .: (20:51) In February, we took a look at an indicator we call the Equity Hedging Index (EHI). The EHI takes into account various ways that most speculators would hedge against a market decline: 1. Raise cash2. Buy put options3. Trade an inverse ETF or mutual fund4. Sell short futures contracts5. Buy credit default swaps The Index looks at each of the measures and compares their current level to historical averages. The more that speculators show hedging behavior, the higher the EHI goes, and vice-versa.
TomTheTrader .: (20:51) By early February, the index had dropped below the lower threshold of 20, which was an early warning sign that speculators didn’t see much of a need to hedge against their stock positions. They were right – for awhile – and the EHI dipped a bit further, declining to 14 by mid-March. But like we’ve seen before, those additional shorter-term gains were given back during the subsequent correction.
TomTheTrader .: (20:51) During the May-June market decline, we didn’t see the EHI rise nearly as much as it has during other pullbacks over the past few years. It never even rose above 50, and has currently dropped to 32. That’s low, but not extreme. There isn’t any one reason why the indicator never rose much in May and June. While many of our sentiment indicators hit extremes in mid-May, the hedging indicators mentioned above never showed much of an increase.
TomTheTrader .: (20:52) So is this a good sign or a bad one? If we’re looking for a silver lining, then we could say that investors sold down their positions in the recent correction, leaving less of a need to hedge the existing exposure in their portfolios. If we’re looking for something more nefarious, then we could say that speculators are overly confident that this correction is just that – a correction – and so they’ve seen no need to protect against something more dramatic. That would be a troubling sign of complacency.
TomTheTrader .: (20:52) We prefer to look at empirical evidence to see which case is more likely. Unfortunately, in this case there are no precedents. Because of the indicators involved, the EHI only goes back to 2001. And in that time, we’ve never seen seen a -5% pullback in stocks while the EHI remained below 50 for the entire pullback. So we’re in uncharted waters. Given the indicators and studies we discussed in May and earlier in June, the most likely scenario seems to be a further recovery in stocks. But we’d rate the unusual behavior in the EHI as a negative. It would probably have been better to see a big spike in hedging among speculators.
TomTheTrader .: (23:17) TTT leveraged long into a Mammoth gap up on Euro news
RedlionTrader : (6/29/2012 09:10) TTTHedge.com Twitter Trader online
TomTheTrader .: (09:30) MINI will short 50% here TF 789.50 stops 792.00
TomTheTrader .: (09:32) 788.80 exited shorts Mini
TomTheTrader .: (09:39) we will sell our 50% long in $DOO from $36.10 -closed 37.87
TomTheTrader .: (09:40) Both Main and IRA 50% DOO closing
TomTheTrader .: (09:43) Mini will short here 50% 1345.00 stops 1348.00
TomTheTrader .: (09:45) locked in profits at 1344.00
TomTheTrader .: (09:45) MINI Flat
TomTheTrader .: (09:49) Sprint 25% long position locked in profits at 3.30
TomTheTrader .: (09:49) from 3.10
TomTheTrader .: (09:49) Main and IRA
TomTheTrader .: (09:54) MINI will short here 50% at 1344.50
TomTheTrader .: (09:54) stops 1348.50
TomTheTrader .: (09:55) 1343.50 covered Mini is Flat
TomTheTrader .: (10:08) $AZZ 58.50
TomTheTrader .: (10:08) exited
TomTheTrader .: (10:09) 60.90 high on AZZ
TomTheTrader .: (10:18) short here MINI 50% 1348.50 stops 1352.50
TomTheTrader .: (10:18) Filled
TomTheTrader .: (10:21) $AZZ was a real earnings BEAT
TomTheTrader .: (10:21) Much like our $TITN stop in http://www.ttthedge.com
TomTheTrader .: (10:33) 1347.75 scalped coovered for more gains
TomTheTrader .: (10:43) short 25% here TF at 790.00 stops 792.00
TomTheTrader .: (10:43) 789.60 filled covered
TomTheTrader .: (10:44) That was in the MINI account
TomTheTrader .: (11:02) 790.20
TomTheTrader .: (11:02) short TF
TomTheTrader .: (11:02) 25% Mini
TomTheTrader .: (11:03) stops 791.80
TomTheTrader .: (11:08) 789.30 covered 25% short in Mini
TomTheTrader .: (11:08) OUR PORTFOLIOS WILL GO 100% cash at NOON today
TomTheTrader .: (11:09) Tracker will take a snapshot of remaining positions and we will datrade into 4:00pm
TomTheTrader .: (11:09) TY all
TomTheTrader .: (11:09) ALL PORTFOLIOS to cash at NOON prices
TomTheTrader .: (11:13) 790.20 short 25% Mini stops 792.20
TomTheTrader .: (11:15) 789.60 cover 25% short Flat MINI
TomTheTrader .: (11:21) 790.50 short 25% here MINI
TomTheTrader .: (11:21) filled and short
TomTheTrader .: (11:21) stops at 791.80
TomTheTrader .: (11:30) MINI stopped 791.80
TomTheTrader .: (11:36) NOONERS will move into DXD 2x short DJIA at Noon prices
TomTheTrader .: (11:39) short NQ 2595.50 filled 50% MINI
TomTheTrader .: (11:40) stops at 2600
TomTheTrader .: (11:47) covered shorts 2393.50
TomTheTrader .: (11:56) sharonS .: Overall I am so pleased and have actually been profitable since joining TTT. I’ve been in a number of other services and always seemed to lose money. Thank yu TTT
TomTheTrader .: (11:58) http://www.ttthedge.com
TomTheTrader .: (11:59) TTT GOES TO CASH RIGHT HERE NOON MODEL PORTFOLIOS
TomTheTrader .: (11:59) triplewarmer .: i agree w/sharon only been in this room a couple of weeks and it’s been the best room I’ve experienced.. thanks!
TomTheTrader .: (12:09) Mini short 50% here at 791.60 stops 793.60
TomTheTrader .: (12:19) covered shorts 791.00 Mini is flat
TomTheTrader .: (12:56) Traders short here 50% NQ 2594 stops 2600
TomTheTrader .: (12:57) Mini short here 25% at 792.50 stops 794
TomTheTrader .: (13:21) 794 stopped MINI
TomTheTrader .: (14:42) NQ stopped
TomTheTrader .: (14:45) Traders short here 100% ES1352.00
TomTheTrader .: (14:50) Mini 50% Short TF here at 796.00
TomTheTrader .: (14:51) 795.40 covered
TomTheTrader .: (14:51) mini
TomTheTrader .: (15:21) covering 50% of the ES Traders shorts here at 1351.25
TomTheTrader .: (15:22) covering 50% of the short here at 1350.75
TomTheTrader .: (15:22) Traders Flat
TomTheTrader .: (15:39) Traders 50% short here at NQ 2600.50
TomTheTrader .: (15:40) stops at 2605.50
TomTheTrader .: (15:51) 2605.50 stopped Traders Mini and MAIN/IRA all cash
TomTheTrader .: (15:51) WTG markets …yes there is a Santa Clause
TomTheTrader .: (15:55) 1355 10 RISK DANGER
TomTheTrader .: (7/2/2012 08:57) The break of 800 TF for a moment is a very bullish sign Long term
TomTheTrader .: (08:57) Mergers and acquisitions are keeping stock prices upas we thought today for now
TomTheTrader .: (08:58) look for a turn down by noon
RedlionTrader : (09:02) Twitter Trader Online.. Join in the fun at http://ttthedge.com
RedlionTrader : (09:02) Twitter Trader Online.. Join in the fun at http://ttthedge.com
RedlionTrader : (09:05) Twitter Trader Online.. Join in the fun at http://ttthedge.com
RedlionTrader : (09:06) TTT
TomTheTrader .: (09:16) WE WILL BE TRADING 3 portfolios from Now on
TomTheTrader .: (09:16) THE MINI =Day Trade Only
TomTheTrader .: (09:16) The Traders 1-7 days
TomTheTrader .: (09:17) and IRA 7days to 120 days
TomTheTrader .: (09:17) 3 portfolios to fit your investing needs
TomTheTrader .: (09:31) MINI short 50% here 1359.00
TomTheTrader .: (09:34) stops at 1362.00
TomTheTrader .: (09:36) 20% position in F at average prices 9.55 IRA
TomTheTrader .: (09:37) 20% GM IRA position at 19.65
TomTheTrader .: (09:38) 20% position GT in IRA at 11.72 avg prices IRA
TomTheTrader .: (09:39) 20% M Macy’s at 34.25
TomTheTrader .: (09:39) IRA
TomTheTrader .: (09:41) 20% CF IRA at 195.00 avg prices this a.m.
TomTheTrader .: (09:42) 100% Long IRA
TomTheTrader .: (09:44) Traders short 25% here at TF 798.00
TomTheTrader .: (09:44) stops 801.00
TomTheTrader .: (09:53) Traders covered at 797.40 covered short profits
RedlionTrader : (09:57) test – we are having trouble with our twitter service – stand by
TomTheTrader .: (09:58) MINI will cover shorts on ES with a profit here at 1358 Flat
TomTheTrader .: (09:59) two trades two nice scalps for profits
RedlionTrader : (09:59) MINI will cover shorts on ES with a profit here at 1358 Flat
TomTheTrader .: (10:06) 20% Long GLD in IRA here 154.95
TomTheTrader .: (10:08) 20% long IRA in 37.35
TomTheTrader .: (10:09) GG Goldcorp
TomTheTrader .: (10:12) 20% HL Hecla minig added to IRA at 4.75
TomTheTrader .: (10:12) 20% added to IRA here in FCX Freeport at 33.50
TomTheTrader .: (10:22) MINI will short 25% here TF at 795.50
TomTheTrader .: (10:22) stops 798.00
TomTheTrader .: (10:23) Mini covered 795.00 Flat
TomTheTrader .: (10:23) Profits taken
TomTheTrader .: (10:31) long here 25% ES in Mini at 1353.00
TomTheTrader .: (10:32) stops 1350.00
TomTheTrader .: (10:48) Mini out 1354.25
TomTheTrader .: (10:48) Mini Flat on long
TomTheTrader .: (10:49) Traders will short 25% here 2612.00 stops 2621.00
TomTheTrader .: (10:49) NQ
TomTheTrader .: (10:50) Mini short 25% here TF at 795.30
TomTheTrader .: (10:50) stop TF HOD
TomTheTrader .: (10:50) TRADERS stops in place
TomTheTrader .: (10:58) 2609.50 covered NQ shorts
TomTheTrader .: (10:59) stops on TF shorts now at 796.00
TomTheTrader .: (11:02) 794.50 covered
TomTheTrader .: (11:03) MINI short is closed with another profit
TomTheTrader .: (11:12) TBT long 20% IRA LIMIT 15.25
TomTheTrader .: (11:20) NOONERS SERVICE WILL SWAP OUT OF DXD into TBT on e-mail
TomTheTrader .: (11:42) short 50% MINI here at 1353.00 ES
TomTheTrader .: (11:48) cover MINI shorts here 1352.25
TomTheTrader .: (11:48) flat mini
CoderTrader: (11:57) hello everybody
CoderTrader: (11:58) too kind
TomTheTrader .: (12:13) 1353.00 short 25% Mini
TomTheTrader .: (12:13) stops 1357.00
TomTheTrader .: (12:19) covering 1352.25
TomTheTrader .: (12:19) filled
TomTheTrader .: (12:48) short Traders here 50% ES 1354.50 stop 1358.00
TomTheTrader .: (12:48) Mini short 25% here TF
TomTheTrader .: (12:49) 796.20
TomTheTrader .: (12:49) stops 798.20
TomTheTrader .: (13:06) 795.80 out on the MINI account
TomTheTrader .: (13:07) Traders drop stops to 1356.00 Traders
TomTheTrader .: (13:35) stopped on ES trade at 1356.00
TomTheTrader .: (14:25) MINI account will short 25% here TF at 797.30 stops 800.00
TomTheTrader .: (14:28) 796.60 lock in gains TF
TomTheTrader .: (14:28) flat MINI
TomTheTrader .: (15:07) short 797.30 TF MINI
TomTheTrader .: (15:07) stops 800.00
TomTheTrader .: (15:10) 796.60 covered shorts
TomTheTrader .: (15:11) That was a 25% position short MINI
TomTheTrader .: (15:14) Traders long QQQ 100% here at 64.13
TomTheTrader .: (15:15) Traders stops at 63.85
TomTheTrader .: (15:17) long 25% NQ here at 2610.00 stops 2604.00 Mini
TomTheTrader .: (15:30) 2612.50 exit Longs MINi
TomTheTrader .: (15:30) MINI Flat
TomTheTrader .: (15:31) QQQ stops at break even 64.13
TomTheTrader .: (15:31) Traders 100% long at QQQ breakeven 64.13
TomTheTrader .: (15:34) short MINI here 25% 800TF stops 802.00
TomTheTrader .: (15:34) QQQ we will exit on the close Traders
TomTheTrader .: (15:40) profit target 64.38 we will sell Traders 100%here
TomTheTrader .: (15:45) 10 mln sh TLT
TomTheTrader .: (15:49) Stopped out of MINI short here at 802.00
TomTheTrader .: (15:53) Traders 100% long we will close out here at 64.31
TomTheTrader .: (15:53) Traders and MINI FLAT
TomTheTrader .: (16:26) tonight 9:00pm EST
TomTheTrader .: (16:26) TTT welcomes all
TomTheTrader .: (16:26) TTT Chalk Talk
TomTheTrader .: (20:58) Mutual fund managers raised cash in May. As of that month-end, they were holding about as much of their assets in cash as they had near previous market troughs over the past couple of years…but it’s still extremely low when looking at the long-term.
TomTheTrader .: (20:58) The latest data from Hulbert Financial Digest shows that newsletters are now recommending a 47% net long position. That’s quite a change from the short position they were touting less than a month ago. Still, stocks haven’t consistently run into trouble until that net long figure gets up to 60%+.
TomTheTrader .: (20:58) When the S&P 500 closed at a one-month high prior to the Independence Day holiday, the day immediately preceding the holiday was positive 7 out of 9 times. The two losses were smaller than -0.4%. The day(s) following were mixed. The day before the holiday has had a very modest positive bias, but it has decreased during the past 20 years.
TomTheTrader .: (20:58) Monday’s see-saw session was enough to relieve most of the short-term overbought conditions among our most-sensitive indicators. There wasn’t much movement, and that should be the case on Tuesday’s shortened session as well. These short pre-holiday days have been consistently positive, and the few times they’ve been negative, the market hasn’t lost much ground.
TomTheTrader .: (20:59) Still looking for a grind to new highs
TomTheTrader .: (20:59) and seeing what the sentiment is like at new highs
TomTheTrader .: (20:59) Most do not like or see any further gains
TomTheTrader .: (20:59) so we will most likely go much higher
RedlionTrader : (7/3/2012 09:02) Happy Fourth to all our twitter Followers @topticktraders
TomTheTrader .: (09:14) Happy $th weekends to all Let’s Trade !
TomTheTrader .: (09:35) short 25% 1359.50 MINI
TomTheTrader .: (09:50) Traders will short 50% here at 1361.50
TomTheTrader .: (09:52) Traders lock in scalp here on 8 contracts 1360.50
TomTheTrader .: (09:58) stops on MINI short here 1364.00
TomTheTrader .: (10:02) Mini stopped at 1364.00
TomTheTrader .: (10:02) 1 contract
TomTheTrader .: (10:17) NOONERS SERVICE WILL GO TO CASH TBT AT 1:))PM
TomTheTrader .: (10:18) 1:00pm as sent via e-mail
TomTheTrader .: (10:38) short 50% Traders here at 1365.25
TomTheTrader .: (10:38) stops 1370.00
TomTheTrader .: (10:39) TomTheTrader .: 10 risk and PEGGED out oscillators
TomTheTrader .: (10:57) MINI shoert 50% here TF at 812.00 stops 814.00
TomTheTrader .: (10:59) IRA we will put stops on the following at break even
TomTheTrader .: (11:00) F
TomTheTrader .: (11:00) GM CF GLD GG HL FCX TBT all stops breakeven
TomTheTrader .: (11:01) Nervous long go ahead and take profits highs are in
TomTheTrader .: (11:03) stops on M and GT still 8% back from purchase price
TomTheTrader .: (11:05) MINI is flat covered at 811.50 filled flat
TomTheTrader .: (11:26) WE will sell TBT 20% from IRA 15.70
TomTheTrader .: (11:27) FCX 20% IRA position 35.69
TomTheTrader .: (11:28) HL sell at 4.96 sold 20% here
TomTheTrader .: (11:28) GG sold at 39.06
TomTheTrader .: (11:28) 20% also
TomTheTrader .: (11:28) IRA
TomTheTrader .: (11:38) MINI short 50% hereTF 815.00 stops 817.00
TomTheTrader .: (11:42) 814.50 mini took profits on 50% short FLAT mini
TomTheTrader .: (11:44) stops on Traders now at 1370.00 50%
TomTheTrader .: (11:55) short 50% here MINI
TomTheTrader .: (11:55) 815.00 TF
TomTheTrader .: (12:05) 814.40 covered TF MINI
TomTheTrader .: (12:05) Nice Scalp TTT
TomTheTrader .: (12:13) WE WILL GO TO CASH at 1:00pm prices in IRA looking to short into Thursday a SDS TWM position in all portfolios
TomTheTrader .: (13:33) MINI short 50% here TF 814.00 stops 815.20
TomTheTrader .: (13:33) No trade above*********
TomTheTrader .: (13:33) We went to cash on the close
TomTheTrader .: (13:33) all positions in cash ex Traders which holds a HEDGE short position
TomTheTrader .: (13:48) IRA Closing prices $F 9.60 GM 20.67 GT 11.44 M 33.36 CF 199.35 GLD 157.96
TomTheTrader .: (13:48) This takes us from leveraged long to CASH
TomTheTrader .: (13:49) and short 8 units ES into Thursdays 9:30 am cash open
TomTheTrader .: (13:49) Congratualations traders and enjoy the profits !!!!
TomTheTrader .: (13:49) http://www.ttthedge.com we also had 4 options alert picks up over 200% this WEEK
TomTheTrader .: (13:50) come join us after the holidays for the best in trading
TomTheTrader .: (13:50) Thanks to @codertrader for aiding in the gains this week
TomTheTrader .: (13:59) Thanks to RED Cathy and TEAM TTT For a great 1st half !
TomTheTrader .: (13:59) Http://www.ttthedge.com we have been perma bullish for a reason …looks like it is still paying off
TomTheTrader .: (13:59) Happy 4th of July All
TomTheTrader .: (13:59) TTT is out !
TomTheTrader .: (14:01) 1374.00 SPX our target for the cycle 1375.00 not bad
TomTheTrader .: (14:01) 12,942.76 13,000 target
TomTheTrader .: (14:02) NYSE lagging a bit target 8000
TomTheTrader .: (14:02) RUT comeback kid Small caps 818.31 past our expectations !
TomTheTrader .: (14:08) *** One cancelled trade today not filled ————————- (07/03/2012 13:33) ————————- TomTheTrader .: MINI short 50% here TF 814.00 stops 815.20TomTheTrader .: No trade above*********
TomTheTrader .: (14:22) Have a GREAT HOLIDAY FROM TTT