TomTheTrader .: (7/9/2012 19:40) Lately , since Early May …Monday’s have been down and tuesday’s up …we will see
TomTheTrader .: (19:42) Wall Street strategists completely gave up on stocks at the end of June, and recommended that investors pile whole-hog into bonds. Assuming the data is correct, it’s one of the most remarkable sentiment readings we’ve witnessed in the past five years
TomTheTrader .: (19:42) This has to be a mistake. If it’s not, we’re witnessing one of the more remarkable readings we’ve ever seen.
TomTheTrader .: (19:43) According to Bloomberg data, professional strategists on Wall Street have never detested stocks – or loved bonds – as much as they do now.
TomTheTrader .: (19:43) Still, in that 15-year window the market has been hit with two major financial crises, two recessions, a horrid terrorist attack, fraud and machines running wild, among other maladies.
TomTheTrader .: (19:43) Yet strategists chose now to become the most pessimistic they’ve ever been in that time span.
TomTheTrader .: (19:44) Not only that, but it was just the last week of June that saw such a huge drop, with their recommended allocation to stocks dropping from 51% to 41%.
TomTheTrader .: (19:44) That’s nearly a 20% decline in their recommended allocation, which is twice as large as any other one-week change.
TomTheTrader .: (19:44) At the same time, strategists’ recommended exposure to bonds increased to a record-high 39.8% of one’s portfolio.
TomTheTrader .: (19:44) The previous record was 39.1% in mid-March 2009, after which long-term bonds fell dramatically during the next two months and the yield on 30-year bonds rose more than +30%.
TomTheTrader .: (19:45) it’s truly one of the most remarkable examples of sentiment we’ve seen since 2008.
TomTheTrader .: (19:46) And if you have a contrarian bone in you ….it should be a call for you to get long stocks and short bonds …unless your fear is worldwide calamity…in that case ??????
TomTheTrader .: (19:46) Other Notes : Include
TomTheTrader .: (19:47) One of the more outstanding extremes is now in the VIX “fear gauge” futures contract, there speculators are net short to nearly a record degree. The history of these extremes is very mixed, however, with no clear tendency to be a contrary (or non-contrary) indicator.
TomTheTrader .: (19:47) Anyone watch the fear derivative trades today ?
TomTheTrader .: (19:47) Amazing disfunction and shows the overall fear of fear
TomTheTrader .: (19:48) TVIX VXX XIV
TomTheTrader .: (19:48) The S&P 500 is still more than 3% below the high it set earlier this year, but the cumulative tally of advancing and declining issues on the NYSE has set a new all-time high. That kind of divergence has led to positive returns almost every time.
TomTheTrader .: (19:48) Last week, we noted that if the NYSE Cumulative Advance / Decline line hit a new long-term high, while the S&P 500 was below its own one-year high by more than 3%, then it boded well for the future.
TomTheTrader .: (19:48) Late last week, that cumulative breadth line for the NYSE hit a new 5-year (and all-time) high while the S&P was still struggling more than 3% below the high it set this spring.
TomTheTrader .: (19:49) Since 1940, this kind of divergence has occurred 13 other times, most recently in January of this year. For the most part, stocks did really well going forward, with only one negative return out of the bunch three months later.
TomTheTrader .: (19:49) On average, it took the index 18 trading days to set a new one-year high. Its maximum loss between the time we saw the divergence and the time it set a new 52-week high was a very tolerable -0.1% with only two of them losing more than -2% at their worst point before setting a new high.
TomTheTrader .: (19:50) So after similar conditions we had over a 92% chance of going up 6% in a less than 3 month period
TomTheTrader .: (19:51) pretty amazing considering the lackluster world we are looking at
TomTheTrader .: (19:52) and this is where you have to TRUST YOUR DATA and your experience in trading …will this all pan out or be a wash due to Mother nature i.e. it’s different this time….it could be ???
TomTheTrader .: (19:53) We will find out but we have been making long calls from 666 1074 1150 1210 1308 and here we are heading to new contract highs ?
TomTheTrader .: (19:53) Stay the course
TomTheTrader .: (19:53) TTT Thanks you !
TomTheTrader .: (19:54) TF runaway gap July 2nd like DEC 19th in ES lots of room to rally
TomTheTrader .: (20:47) Seasonally the next 3 days over the past 30 years of July’s are the STRONGEST
TomTheTrader .: (20:48) Things , as I said today would have been perfect if we would have gotten some more severe short term oversold readings but it looks like we are going higher sooner
TomTheTrader .: (7/10/2012 09:31) MINI will short 50% here at TF 808.00 stops 810.00
TomTheTrader .: (09:32) 807.50 covered
TomTheTrader .: (09:33) Mini Flat
TomTheTrader .: (09:35) 808.20 filled short MINI 50%
TomTheTrader .: (09:35) stops 810.00
TomTheTrader .: (09:41) 807.80 exited 50% short MINI is in cash
TomTheTrader .: (10:13) Traders will cover shorts here 50% at 1348.50
TomTheTrader .: (10:14) MINI and Traders in Cash
TomTheTrader .: (10:50) MINI long 50% here ES 1346.00
TomTheTrader .: (10:50) stops 1342.00
TomTheTrader .: (10:55) 1346.75 MINI locks in profits
TomTheTrader .: (10:58) MINI long 50% here TF 800.00
TomTheTrader .: (10:58) stops 798.00
TomTheTrader .: (10:59) 800.70 locked in profits
TomTheTrader .: (10:59) MINI Flat
TomTheTrader .: (11:01) MINI is long here TF at 799.50
TomTheTrader .: (11:01) stops 797.50
TomTheTrader .: (11:02) Lock in profits here at 800.00 TF MINI Flat
TomTheTrader .: (11:06) MINI long 50% here ES1343.00 stops 1340.00
TomTheTrader .: (11:07) RISK 1
TomTheTrader .: (11:07) very low risk for buyers
TomTheTrader .: (11:19) 1344.00 MINI takes profits
TomTheTrader .: (11:29) MINI will short 50% here TF at 799.70
TomTheTrader .: (11:29) stops 802.00
TomTheTrader .: (11:29) 799.10 out Flat MINI
TomTheTrader .: (12:05) short MINI here 50% at 800.00
TomTheTrader .: (12:06) 799.50 covered MINI
TomTheTrader .: (12:06) MINI Flat
TomTheTrader .: (12:39) Traders will short 50% here TF 799.80
TomTheTrader .: (12:39) TRADERS short on TF
TomTheTrader .: (12:40) stops at 804.00
TomTheTrader .: (12:49) 799.20 out Traders
TomTheTrader .: (12:49) for profits FLAT MINI and Traders
TomTheTrader .: (12:52) Traders short 50% here TF 799.50 stops 802.50
TomTheTrader .: (12:57) Traders covered here at 789.90 Cash
TomTheTrader .: (13:31) MINI long 50% here ES at 1342.00 stops 1338.00
TomTheTrader .: (13:44) MINI taking off the longs here at 1341.50 Flat
TomTheTrader .: (13:44) MINI is flat and TRADERS is flat
TomTheTrader .: (14:10) Traders 50% long here 1340.00 stops 1336.00
TomTheTrader .: (14:19) MINI 50% long TF here at 792.50 stops 790.50
TomTheTrader .: (14:20) SSO replaced in the IRA buy INTC here at 25.63
TomTheTrader .: (14:20) Traders stopped at 1336.00 cash
TomTheTrader .: (14:22) 793.10 exited mini long MINI is in cash
TomTheTrader .: (14:23) Traders 50% long here 1336.00 stops 1332.00
TomTheTrader .: (14:26) DGP stopped replaced in IRA by IBM at 186.00
TomTheTrader .: (14:54) MINI long 2573 NQ stops 2565.00 50%
TomTheTrader .: (14:55) 2575.00 MINI to cash
TomTheTrader .: (14:55) MINI 25% long TF here at 790.50
TomTheTrader .: (14:55) stops 788.50
TomTheTrader .: (14:56) 791.00 TF exit for gains MINI Flat
TomTheTrader .: (14:57) Traders 50% long here at 790.50 stops 787.00
TomTheTrader .: (14:58) Traders taking profits here at 791.50
TomTheTrader .: (15:04) Traders taking profits at 1337.00 Traders and MINI Flat 1340 ES
TomTheTrader .: (15:06) short term portfolios are Flat in Cash
TomTheTrader .: (15:06) IRA 200% long
TomTheTrader .: (15:07) YES from the High country !
TomTheTrader .: (15:13) MINI long 50% here NQ at 2574.00 stops 2568.00
TomTheTrader .: (15:36) EWC stopped and replaced with FAS here at 84.05
TomTheTrader .: (15:38) Traders long 25% here TF 789.40
TomTheTrader .: (15:44) 790.00 Traders out
TomTheTrader .: (15:46) MINI will take off 50% long NQ at the 2574.250 mark all cash short term
TomTheTrader .: (15:46) closed out
TomTheTrader .: (15:49) TRADERS will take a 200% long SSO long here at 52.75
TomTheTrader .: (15:49) stops at 51.50
TomTheTrader .: (15:51) MINI will take a short position here into the close TF 791.00 stops 793.00 50%
TomTheTrader .: (15:53) Traders taking profits 200% long here at SSO 53.00
TomTheTrader .: (15:56) MINI stopped at TF 793.00 we are DONE