TomTheTrader .: (7/16/2012 20:52) The past few weeks have seen the Arms Index skyrocket, especially for a bull market.
TomTheTrader .: (20:52) The 7 other times this has happened over the past 70 years, the S&P did very well over the next 50 days, with no losses.
TomTheTrader .: (20:53) A Bloomberg story that got syndicated on Yahoo! generated quite a bit of interest. According to one of the stats, shares sold short on the NYSE accounted for the highest percentage of total shares in over a year.
TomTheTrader .: (20:53) showing that the current level of bets against the market hasn’t quite broached that level…or other extremes from the past few years. We’ve never been big fans of short interest so we’d rate it as a very minor positive and with a very low priority level.
TomTheTrader .: (20:54) Last week we discussed the Arms Index (aka TRIN) and its streak above 1.0. It reached that threshold yet again on Monday.
TomTheTrader .: (20:54) Recently, the three-week average of that indicator jumped above 1.60, an unusually rare sign of underlying selling pressure on the NYSE, especially during a bull market (defined simply as the S&P 500 trading above its 200-day moving average).
TomTheTrader .: (20:54) Since 1940, the three-week average has hit that level 7 other times before now.
TomTheTrader .: (20:55) Each time, the index managed to gain ground over that time frame, and it was usually substantial. Twice the S&P lost more than -3% at its worst point during the next 50 days, but the maximum gain at its best point swamped those relatively minor losses.
TomTheTrader .: (20:55) This is a net positive for stocks short int. and long term
TomTheTrader .: (20:55) The markets are yearnings
TomTheTrader .: (20:56) for Mr Bernanke to give them what they want
TomTheTrader .: (20:56) if he disapoints
TomTheTrader .: (20:56) there is higher than normal risk here
TomTheTrader .: (20:57) if he delivers …the after math maybe a very overboght market at rally highs in a worldwide recession like feeling …which would be sold
TomTheTrader .: (20:57) So for now …we are in between a rock (THE BULL) and a hard place ( The Top)
TomTheTrader .: (20:58) no one wants to miss a top !
TomTheTrader .: (20:58) Party on TTT
TomTheTrader .: (21:34) Hong Kong stocks open sharply higher, with banks gaining; Hang Seng Index up 1.2%
TomTheTrader .: (21:35) Azumi JPY intervention POPS ES Longs http://www.ttthedge.com
TomTheTrader .: (7/17/2012 09:11) 10:00am Ben
TomTheTrader .: (09:32) Mini short 50% here ES 1354.50 stops 1358.50
TomTheTrader .: (09:42) Mini lock in profits here at 1353.00 Mini Flat
TomTheTrader .: (09:47) Mini long 50% here at 1351.50
TomTheTrader .: (09:47) stops 1347.50
TomTheTrader .: (09:54) Traders long 25% here TF at 794.70
TomTheTrader .: (09:56) Traders taking profits at 795.20 exited traders Flat
TomTheTrader .: (10:03) Mini was stopped at 1347.50
TomTheTrader .: (10:03) Flat
TomTheTrader .: (10:06) Long MINI 50% here TF 791..50
TomTheTrader .: (10:07) stops 789.50
TomTheTrader .: (10:09) Mini locked in profits at 792.50
TomTheTrader .: (10:45) MINI 50% long here at TF 786.50
TomTheTrader .: (10:45) stops at 784.00 TF MINI
TomTheTrader .: (10:47) 25% off at 787.30 filled
TomTheTrader .: (10:48) exit the rest at 787.30 MINI flat
TomTheTrader .: (11:07) EXITED NOONERS SERVICE CASH
TomTheTrader .: (11:07) 11:00am
TomTheTrader .: (11:07) with profits
TomTheTrader .: (11:08) 53.91 DXD was exited to cash in Nooners
TomTheTrader .: (12:09) Traders 50% short here ES 1353.00 stops 1357.00
TomTheTrader .: (12:09) Mini short 50% here TF at 797
TomTheTrader .: (12:10) stops 800.00
TomTheTrader .: (12:12) we will lock in Gains in the IRA at GILD and CMCSA here 12:15 pm prices
TomTheTrader .: (12:13) Profits taken 796.00 TF MINI Flat
TomTheTrader .: (12:15) CMCSA exited IRA at 32.11
TomTheTrader .: (12:15) 52.87 GILD exited
TomTheTrader .: (12:57) IRA will add 25% ALB and 25% KFN at 1:00pm Prices
TomTheTrader .: (13:25) Traders stopped at 1357.00
TomTheTrader .: (13:25) Traders Flat
TomTheTrader .: (13:47) Mini will short 50% here at 799.20
TomTheTrader .: (13:47) stops 801.00
TomTheTrader .: (13:52) Traders short 25% TF here at 799.00
TomTheTrader .: (13:55) 798.00 TF cover both MINI and Traders shoerts
TomTheTrader .: (13:56) shorts covered in cash Traders and MINI
TomTheTrader .: (14:15) Mini will short 50% here TF at 789.90
TomTheTrader .: (14:15) 798.90 short TF
TomTheTrader .: (14:15) My apologies
TomTheTrader .: (14:16) 798.30 locked in profits MINI
TomTheTrader .: (14:22) Traders short 50% here TF at 798.50
TomTheTrader .: (14:23) stops 800.00
TomTheTrader .: (14:42) &98.00 we took profits traders
TomTheTrader .: (14:42) will not hold for 1 point as it is junxed
TomTheTrader .: (14:43) 798.00
TomTheTrader .: (14:45) Mini 50% short here TF at 798.60
TomTheTrader .: (14:46) stops 800.00
TomTheTrader .: (14:47) Mini locked in profits 798.00
TomTheTrader .: (14:47) MINI and TRADERS FLAT
TomTheTrader .: (14:48) Traders will short 50% here ES here at 1358.50
TomTheTrader .: (14:48) stops 1362.50
TomTheTrader .: (14:50) Mini short here NQ at 2590.00 stops 2596.00
TomTheTrader .: (14:52) stops on SMH in Traders now at 29.25 Traders NEW +++++
TomTheTrader .: (15:07) 2587.75 covered shorts MINI
TomTheTrader .: (15:07) Traders cover 1357.25 filled
TomTheTrader .: (15:07) MINI and Traders FLAT
TomTheTrader .: (15:30) MINI long 25% here NQ at 2582.00
TomTheTrader .: (15:30) stops 2575.00
TomTheTrader .: (15:32) 2583.00 MINI locked in profits will reenter
TomTheTrader .: (15:36) MINI 50% long 2582.00 here
TomTheTrader .: (15:37) NQ stops 2575.00
TomTheTrader .: (15:48) mini exit here 2584.50
TomTheTrader .: (21:01) Over the past 20 years, the Dow Jones Industrial Average has gained more than +0.5% on the day 1,582 times. Of those, the Transports have lost more than -0.5% only 90 times (like it did on Tuesday). Some consider this an ominous divergence. Looking at the Dow’s future performance, there was a miniscule bit of short-term under-performance, but it was so minor as to not be statistically significant.
TomTheTrader .: (21:02) Stocks enjoyed another up day on Tuesday, marking only the 2nd positive session in nearly two weeks. Despite so many losses, the S&P 500 is within striking distance of where it was when the losing streak began.
TomTheTrader .: (21:02) Almost everything we’ve discussed over the past few weeks that had a multi-week time frame has been neutral-to-bullish for stocks. We’re starting to see a few cracks in that as the rally chops forward. This study could be included in that, though we’d rate it with a low priority level.
TomTheTrader .: (21:03) With prices meandering higher, we continue to favor a further rally, though our indicators and studies aren’t showing a large edge for the short-term. There just hasn’t been enough of a move over the past few days to generate any extremes, and the price patterns are inconclusive.
TomTheTrader .: (21:03) As we get further into the election we will see more and more new money in the markets mostly from the FED not the public
TomTheTrader .: (21:04) BULLS still have the edge but you have to have a hedge
TomTheTrader .: (21:05) Earnings plays we will enter 20 10% earnings plays tomorrow and exit some stale positions
TomTheTrader .: (21:06) IRA positions
TomTheTrader .: (7/18/2012 09:03) Good Morning !
TomTheTrader .: (09:35) Traders short 50% at 1356.75
TomTheTrader .: (09:35) stops at 1360.00
TomTheTrader .: (09:36) Mini short 25% here at TF 798.00
TomTheTrader .: (09:36) stops 801.00
TomTheTrader .: (09:41) ————————- (07/18/2012 09:41) ————————- TomTheTrader .: IRA ex IBM will go to cash here at 9:45 am Traders SMH too
TomTheTrader .: (09:42) SMH and all IRA positions except IBM will be exited
TomTheTrader .: (09:42) we will temporarily go to mostly cash
TomTheTrader .: (09:42) as we enter Earnings plays in the IRA
TomTheTrader .: (09:43) Again IRA dumping everything except IBM Traders selling SMH also
TomTheTrader .: (09:46) 30.51 SMH Traders
TomTheTrader .: (09:53) Traders stopped at 1360.00
TomTheTrader .: (09:53) Mini stopped at 801.00
TomTheTrader .: (09:53) IRA now 25% long
TomTheTrader .: (09:53) hedges OFF
TomTheTrader .: (10:03) Traders short 100% here at 1363.00 stops 1367.00
TomTheTrader .: (10:20) Mini 50% short here at 802.50 stops 804.00
TomTheTrader .: (10:21) 801.70 Mini Flat
TomTheTrader .: (10:26) MINI short TF here at 802.00 stops 804.00
TomTheTrader .: (10:32) Traders covered 1361.50
TomTheTrader .: (10:32) Flat Mini covered 801.40 Flat
TomTheTrader .: (10:44) Traders 100% short here at 1365.00
TomTheTrader .: (10:44) stops 1369.00
TomTheTrader .: (10:45) MINI short 100% here TF at 803.70
TomTheTrader .: (10:45) stops 805.70
TomTheTrader .: (10:46) 803.30 covered Mini
TomTheTrader .: (10:48) IRA will add 7 positions at 11:00am to IRA 25% each MPC APC EQIX RHT BMRN BIDU GE
TomTheTrader .: (10:49) MINI short 100% here at 804.50 stops 806.50
TomTheTrader .: (10:53) Mini covers all at 804.00 Flat
TomTheTrader .: (10:55) MINI 25% short here at 804.50
TomTheTrader .: (10:55) stops 806.50
TomTheTrader .: (11:08) Traders out breakeven 1365.00 MINI out with profits at 804.00
TomTheTrader .: (11:09) MINI and TRADERS are Flat
TomTheTrader .: (11:09) IRA 200% long
TomTheTrader .: (11:09) Updated
TomTheTrader .: (11:09) Crazy Morning
TomTheTrader .: (11:10) Traders will short ES here again 50% at 1365.50 stops 1370.00
TomTheTrader .: (11:14) Traders covered for profits 1364.50
TomTheTrader .: (11:18) MINI will short here 50% at 804.00 stops 806.00
TomTheTrader .: (11:30) Traders short here 50% at 1365.50
TomTheTrader .: (11:51) NOONERS will go from cash to TWM at NOON prices
TomTheTrader .: (11:51) stops on Traders is at 1369.50
TomTheTrader .: (12:03) TRADERS 100% long BX here at 12.83
TomTheTrader .: (12:04) MINI stopped at 806.00 Flat
TomTheTrader .: (12:06) BX was filled at 12.84
TomTheTrader .: (12:08) Traders stops on BX at 12.65
TomTheTrader .: (12:12) Traders stopped at 1369.50
TomTheTrader .: (12:23) Traders 100% short here at 1370.25 stops 1374.25
TomTheTrader .: (12:23) Mini 100% short here at 806.50
TomTheTrader .: (12:24) 10Risk day trade MOMO market now
TomTheTrader .: (12:24) have to be careful we do not melt up
TomTheTrader .: (12:24) Mini covers at 806.00
TomTheTrader .: (12:25) Traders covers all at 1369.50
TomTheTrader .: (12:35) MINI short 50% here 805.80 TF
TomTheTrader .: (12:35) stops 807.80
TomTheTrader .: (12:40) Mini filled covers at 805.40
TomTheTrader .: (12:40) MINI and Traders Flat
TomTheTrader .: (12:41) Traders still 100% Long BX
TomTheTrader .: (12:41) Not Flat
TomTheTrader .: (12:41) Flat Futures
TomTheTrader .: (12:41) BX a swing long stops in
TomTheTrader .: (12:45) MINI will short 50% here at NQ 2625 stops 2629.00
TomTheTrader .: (13:00) Traders 50% short TF here at 806.10 stops 808.00
TomTheTrader .: (13:01) Limit to cover traders TF at 805.10
TomTheTrader .: (13:01) BOXED IN here Traders TF
TomTheTrader .: (13:03) 805.20 exited Traders shorts
rob r .: (13:12) out AH 11.26 -.06.
TomTheTrader .: (13:16) IBM YUM AXP BIG AH for DOW as IBM Divisor HUGE in IBM High weight
TomTheTrader .: (13:32) Mini will cover shorts here at 2623.00 Flat now
TomTheTrader .: (13:42) Traders BX we will take off at 12.90 here
TomTheTrader .: (13:42) Traders gong to cash BX sold at 12.90
TomTheTrader .: (14:11) ES HAS TOPPED
TomTheTrader .: (14:11) NQ has topped
TomTheTrader .: (14:11) TF has topped
TomTheTrader .: (14:12) Highs of OPEX week in
TomTheTrader .: (14:12) lows of VIX in
TomTheTrader .: (14:14) TO Traders whom took hits today …play smaller and slow the ball down
TomTheTrader .: (14:15) Yearly highs in GRU recommended at 5.75
TomTheTrader .: (14:16) DAG is still a good long
TomTheTrader .: (14:16) DYY also
TomTheTrader .: (14:16) JJG calls
TomTheTrader .: (14:29) MINI short 50% here at ES 1368.50 stops 1370.50
TomTheTrader .: (14:30) Traders 25% short TF 804.50
TomTheTrader .: (14:31) above trade waxed no fill Traders no fill ++++*****
TomTheTrader .: (14:31) Mini coveres shorts 1367.25 filled
TomTheTrader .: (15:10) Traders long 100% FCX and 100% MET here at 30.98 and 32.87 100% each
TomTheTrader .: (15:10) FCX 32.87
TomTheTrader .: (15:10) and MET 30.98
TomTheTrader .: (15:11) stop FCX at 31.50 stop MET 30.25
TomTheTrader .: (15:21) Mini will scalp shrt 50% here TF at 802.20 stops 804.20
TomTheTrader .: (15:25) 801.30 exited shorts
TomTheTrader .: (15:25) Mini Flat
TomTheTrader .: (15:25) Traders 50% short ES here at 1367.50
TomTheTrader .: (15:25) stops 1370.00
TomTheTrader .: (15:25) Traders SCALP
TomTheTrader .: (15:26) have to close by 4:15 pm
TomTheTrader .: (15:40) Traders stops here at 1368.00 Flat OUT
TomTheTrader .: (15:40) Traders 200% Long IRA 200% Long and MINI is in cash
TomTheTrader .: (15:51) we will sell 100% MET on the 4:00pm close in Traders
TomTheTrader .: (16:01) Traders exited MET at 30.95
TomTheTrader .: (16:07) 189.50 IRA is out
TomTheTrader .: (16:08) IRA we are exiting IBM at 189.50
TomTheTrader .: (16:11) Special dition of TTT Chalk Talk Night Moves 9:00pm EST
TomTheTrader .: (19:57) DX and TF opening for business
TomTheTrader .: (19:58) 8:00pm EST will look fo some follow through from China and easing will help
TomTheTrader .: (21:01) According to Investor’s Intelligence, there have been no more than 30% bears among newsletter writers for over six months. But there haven’t been any more than 55% bulls during that time, either. Since 1970, we’ve seen that two other times – 7/1/83 and 1/22/10. Both led to choppy markets, FWIW. More than anything, it’s just a really unusual period where writers refuse to become bearish…but don’t want to be overly bullish, either.
TomTheTrader .: (21:01) A popular technical indicator just gave a false sell signal, suggesting good upside momentum. Historically, though, quick reversals in the sell signal haven’t indicated a significant upside edge.
TomTheTrader .: (21:01) yet again…with prices meandering higher, we continue to favor a further rally, though our indicators and studies aren’t showing a large edge for the short-term. There just hasn’t been enough of a move over the past few days to generate any extremes, and the price patterns are inconclusive.
TomTheTrader .: (21:02) One of the most popular trend-following technical indicators is the MACD. Created by Gerald Appel more than four decades ago, it stands for Moving Average Convergence Divergence, and it looks at the relationship between a shorter-term and longer-term moving average.
TomTheTrader .: (21:02) There are numerous ways to use it, but the most common is as a general buy/sell generator when the “signal” line moves above/below the average line
TomTheTrader .: (21:02) Like most trend-following indicators, it has a low win rate (i.e. it’s not very accurate), but it’s meant to catch trends and not every wiggle. When the MACD gives a sell signal, it causes many traders to lighten up on positions just in case we’re heading into a downtrend.
TomTheTrader .: (21:02) It gave another sell signal last Thursday, likely causing more than a few traders some consternation. But on Monday, that sell signal was reversed.
TomTheTrader .: (21:03) Sometimes, we can learn more from a failed signal than a successful one. When we get a sell signal that’s quickly reversed, with essentially no damage to the market, many consider that to be a strong sign of momentum that’s likely going to lead to more upside.
TomTheTrader .: (21:03) Unfortunately for momentum-favoring bulls, there isn’t a lot to go off of in the table. The S&P’s returns going forward were fine, but only about in line with random. There wasn’t anything special about the index’s performance over the following days, weeks or months. That’s held true through the decades
TomTheTrader .: (21:03) Speaking of MOMO
TomTheTrader .: (21:03) did you see the AH and the amazing specualtion