TomTheTrader .: (7/25/2012 20:52) Traders have been focused on defensive stocks as opposed to economically-sensitive ones during the rally off the June lows
TomTheTrader .: (20:52) So much so, in fact, that this is the most “defensive” rally in 15 years.
TomTheTrader .: (20:52) Tony Dwyer, Chief Equity Strategist at Canaccord Genuity Securities, pointed out an interesting wrinkle about the rally off the June lows
TomTheTrader .: (20:52) It has been led by defensive stocks, to much more of a degree than the other rallies off lows we’ve seen over the past couple of years
TomTheTrader .: (20:53) It turns out that it’s not just the past couple of years. Going back to 1999, there hasn’t been a similar rally from at least a minor intermediate-term low where defensive stocks have led by as much as they are now.
TomTheTrader .: (20:53) To determine this, we’re looking at two exchange-traded sector funds, XLY and XLP. XLY is concentrated in discretionary stocks, which tend to rise and fall in line with the economy.
TomTheTrader .: (20:53) So is this defensive mindset coming off a low a good thing or a bad thing? Instead of guessing on a theory, let’s look at some numbers.
TomTheTrader .: (20:54) Overall, there was not a direct correlation between the out-performance of XLY over XLP and future broad-market performance. However, it’s a little worrying that the S&P showed weakness over the next 1-3 months in six out of seven cases when the ratio was negative, as it is now.
TomTheTrader .: (20:54) In other words worry persists and selling persists
TomTheTrader .: (20:55) or as we have said we best get this market some growth and a rally pretty quick or this could morph into a value trap type market
TomTheTrader .: (20:55) or worse
TomTheTrader .: (20:56) Other NOTES : The S&P 500 has suffered four straight down days while above its 200-day average 50 times in the past 20 years
TomTheTrader .: (20:56) It went on to five down days 32% of the time. At some point in the next three sessions, it enjoyed a higher close 90% of the time and over the next week 94% of the time.
TomTheTrader .: (20:57) So a good chance of seeing a higher close than Wednesday’s at some point in the coming days.
TomTheTrader .: (20:58) Again the 1325 SPX cash becomes a rallying call or another breakdown area into a intermediate term correction…for now I am giving the Bulls the benefit of the doubt and playing
TomTheTrader .: (20:58) like I have for 4 years ..leveraging off the lows and pushing earnings plays and day trade futures scalps
TomTheTrader .: (20:58) it has worked well and I hope it works for you
TomTheTrader .: (20:59) Thank you for being here and tomorrow will be another tough day as the news flow worldwide is so pessimistic it is hard to see the Upside
TomTheTrader .: (7/26/2012 08:59) $ES_F today’s day session range estimate is 1345-1360
TomTheTrader .: (09:41) NOONERS will go to Cash at 9:45 am Per e-mail http://www.ttthedge.com
TomTheTrader .: (09:43) 48.54 Traders Exited TQQQ
TomTheTrader .: (09:43) XLF in Traders stop at 14.44
TomTheTrader .: (09:52) Pending home sales …a huge rally in home related stocks today
TomTheTrader .: (09:56) ————————- (07/26/2012 09:56) ————————- dpevergreen .: TY for keeping me on the right side of this market!
TomTheTrader .: (10:01) XLF in Traders stopped at 14.44
TomTheTrader .: (10:13) KBR stopped at 25.75 up
TomTheTrader .: (10:13) IRA
TomTheTrader .: (10:13) KBR hit a high of 29.65 !
TomTheTrader .: (10:14) Again taking off KBR here 25% IRA will replace
TomTheTrader .: (10:18) CCI and TQQQ we will exit from IRA and reenter with new positions at 10:30 am prices
TomTheTrader .: (10:38) Traders 50% long NQ here at 2579.50
TomTheTrader .: (10:39) stops at 2575.00
TomTheTrader .: (10:39) MINI LONG 50% here TF at 774.20
TomTheTrader .: (10:40) stops 772.20
TomTheTrader .: (10:44) 2575.00 stopped on Traders
TomTheTrader .: (10:53) TF was stopped 772.00
TomTheTrader .: (10:53) 772.20
TomTheTrader .: (10:53) TY
TomTheTrader .: (11:08) OZM and MDR we will add to IRA here at OZM 6.87
TomTheTrader .: (11:08) MDR 11.25
TomTheTrader .: (11:08) 25% each
TomTheTrader .: (11:11) we will add a 50% position in LEG in IRA here at 22.14
TomTheTrader .: (11:24) MINI long 50% here ES at 1349.00
TomTheTrader .: (11:24) stops 1345.00
TomTheTrader .: (11:24) Target 1350.00
TomTheTrader .: (11:30) Mini taking profits at 1350.00
TomTheTrader .: (11:35) NOONERS and TRADERS will go 100% Long into XLF at Noon prices E-mail sent
TomTheTrader .: (11:41) Long 50% here MINI ES 1349.00
TomTheTrader .: (11:41) stops 1345.00
TomTheTrader .: (11:42) Traders long 25% here in TF at 772.00 stops 770.00
TomTheTrader .: (12:02) 14.42 0.15(1.05%) 12:02PM EDT – Nasdaq Real Time Price
TomTheTrader .: (12:05) 770.00 traders stopped
TomTheTrader .: (12:07) MINI 75% long NQ here at 2565.00 stops 2560.00
TomTheTrader .: (12:08) Traders long 25% here TF 770.20
TomTheTrader .: (12:09) stops 768.20
TomTheTrader .: (12:14) MINI took off Profits at 2568.00 Flat
TomTheTrader .: (12:15) 771.20 exited Traders for profits
TomTheTrader .: (12:55) MINI out of last ES long at 1350.00
TomTheTrader .: (13:27) MINI short 50% here ES at 1353.00
TomTheTrader .: (13:27) stops 1357.00
TomTheTrader .: (13:35) Traders long 50% here TF at 770.50 stops 768.00
TomTheTrader .: (13:36) stops on Mini down to 1355.00
TomTheTrader .: (13:44) POT NBR and MPC will be replaced by KFN GILD and CERN at 2:00pm In Ira 25%
TomTheTrader .: (13:45) stops on ES now at 1354.00 MINI
TomTheTrader .: (13:52) stops noew at 1353.00 ES
TomTheTrader .: (13:54) 1352.00 Lock in Mini Profits
TomTheTrader .: (13:54) Take the $$$
TomTheTrader .: (13:54) holf TF long
TomTheTrader .: (14:01) Hold TF Long
TomTheTrader .: (14:09) stops up to 769.00 TF Traders
TomTheTrader .: (14:27) Traders will go 100% long TBT here at 14.30 stops 14.00
TomTheTrader .: (14:40) 770.50 stops TF
TomTheTrader .: (14:48) Taking 25% traders off TF here at 771.80 25% left stops 771.00
TomTheTrader .: (14:49) 771.80 sold the rest
TomTheTrader .: (14:49) cannot last
TomTheTrader .: (14:49) Flat traders
TomTheTrader .: (14:57) We Hit 10 RISK meaning no new longs please ..be careful Hold
TomTheTrader .: (14:57) short em if you want
TomTheTrader .: (14:57) 1355.00 ES
TomTheTrader .: (15:04) ————————- (07/26/2012 14:27) ————————- TomTheTrader .: Traders will go 100% long TBT here at 14.30 stops 14.00
TomTheTrader .: (15:19) MINI short here 75% ES 1354.50 stops 1357.50
TomTheTrader .: (15:23) 11.47 we sold MDR for Profits IRA
TomTheTrader .: (15:39) 10 risk Hit again after Bull Flag
TomTheTrader .: (15:39) 1357.00
TomTheTrader .: (15:40) MINI stopped 1357.50
TomTheTrader .: (16:10) TTT will meet 9:00pm
TomTheTrader .: (16:22) GILD we took off our positions at 53.00
TomTheTrader .: (16:22) IRA
TomTheTrader .: (16:28) 7/26/2012 16:26:45 NASDAQ NM 1154 22.49
TomTheTrader .: (16:29) LEG we will sell here
TomTheTrader .: (16:33) Cancel above trade AH fill
TomTheTrader .: (16:35) Leg sold at 7/26/2012 16:33:26 PSE 600 22.69
TomTheTrader .: (16:39) LEG was closed at 7 min
TomTheTrader .: (16:39) and we filled on the open