TomTheTrader .: (8/6/2012 20:23) 9;00 pm est short audio on the markets into tomorrow
TomTheTrader .: (20:47) According to the Hulbert Financial Digest, newsletter writers reduced their recommended exposure to the Nasdaq yet again, to 17.7% net long.
TomTheTrader .: (20:47) That’s down from 52.9% two weeks ago.
TomTheTrader .: (20:47) Since the data began in 2000, there has never been another time when the Nasdaq Composite was up by more than 1% over a two-week period and newsletters reduced their exposure by this much.
TomTheTrader .: (20:48) Over-the-counter trading in stocks that are also known as penny stocks or pink sheets, dove lower in July.
TomTheTrader .: (20:48) It was such a dramatic pullback in speculative trading that we’ve seen lower dollar amounts traded only two other distinct times in 17 years.
TomTheTrader .: (20:49) Last month, we looked at volume in over-the-counter transactions, more commonly known as penny stocks.
TomTheTrader .: (20:49) These are among the most speculative pieces of paper on Wall Street that are available to retail traders and investors
TomTheTrader .: (20:49) In June, the number of transactions in these stocks dropped dramatically, though we were not yet seeing similarly apathetic extremes in the dollar volume of those transactions.
TomTheTrader .: (20:50) That changed in July.
TomTheTrader .: (20:50) Again in a show of the most powerful disconnect near market highs
TomTheTrader .: (20:50) the market had more outflows lowest Bulls and
TomTheTrader .: (20:51) Last month, these traders essentially gave up on speculating in these issues, with the value of trades dropping to $647 million.
TomTheTrader .: (20:51) That sounds like a lot, but it’s the 2nd-lowest period since at least 1995.
TomTheTrader .: (20:51) Nobody is speculating except us !
TomTheTrader .: (20:51) FEAR is unreasonably thick
TomTheTrader .: (20:52) The only other months that saw less than $750 million traded over-the-counter were September 2001 (partly due to closures after the 9/11 tragedy) and November 2008 through April 2009.
TomTheTrader .: (20:52) In total, there were 7 months with dollar volume less than we saw in July, and six months later the S&P 500 was higher by an average of +27.5%.
TomTheTrader .: (20:52) For a contrarian investor these are asounding times never seen before
TomTheTrader .: (20:53) we have more sophisticated tools now and maybe this is what it was like after the carnage post Depression 30′s but
TomTheTrader .: (20:54) if this is how bearish peopl are at rally highs ?
TomTheTrader .: (20:54) maybe we will know what Froth is at 1650 ish ?
TomTheTrader .: (20:55) Looking for continued aggressive trade as we don’t have any guarantees but the markets are acting NEAR PERFECT LONG
TomTheTrader .: (20:55) short term OIL has to go down
TomTheTrader .: (20:55) and stocks have to hang on to 1385 then make new Highs By Labor day
TomTheTrader .: (20:55) EZ ?
TomTheTrader .: (20:58) In this market nothing is EZ ?
TomTheTrader .: (20:59) TY for being here 2 nite !!!
TomTheTrader .: (20:59) Big day tomorrow but light eco data til Thursday
TomTheTrader .: (20:59) watch China tonight
TomTheTrader .: (8/7/2012 08:58) China had a good night and Germany near 7000 with 3x QE soon ?
TomTheTrader .: (09:01) We will replace LEAP with REXX in the IRA to stay 200% leveraged long on the open IRA
TomTheTrader .: (09:31) REXX inserted for Leap at 12.80 per sh
TomTheTrader .: (09:35) Mini 100 % short here TF at 798.00 stops 800.50
TomTheTrader .: (09:38) 797.40 TF locked in covered short Profits
TomTheTrader .: (09:44) Traders 100% short here ES 1398.00
TomTheTrader .: (09:44) stops 1402.00
TomTheTrader .: (09:48) 1397.00 covered shorts Traders 100% Flat
TomTheTrader .: (09:55) 100% short ES here at 1398.00 stops 1402.00 Traders
TomTheTrader .: (09:55) Mini 100% short here TF at 798.50 stops 801.00
TomTheTrader .: (09:59) MINI covered shorts at 797.80 Flat
TomTheTrader .: (10:14) MINI will short 100% here TF 800.50 stops 802.50
TomTheTrader .: (10:18) MINI locked in profits at 800.00 Flat
TomTheTrader .: (10:20) MINI 100% short TF here at 801.50 stops 803.50
TomTheTrader .: (10:29) 801.10 filled Profits taken on MINI
TomTheTrader .: (10:31) MINI will short 100% here TF 801.50 stops 802.50
TomTheTrader .: (10:35) Lock in profits 800.90 MINI flat
TomTheTrader .: (10:43) RL and MTW we will take profits in here RL 155.97 5.91(3.94%) 10:43AM EDT – Nasdaq Real Time Price
TomTheTrader .: (10:44) MTW here at 12.94 0.48(3.85%) 10:44AM EDT – Nasdaq Real Time Price
TomTheTrader .: (10:44) we will replace near the close
TomTheTrader .: (10:50) we will replace RL and MTW with XL and RIO at 11:00am prices
TomTheTrader .: (11:04) TTT Nooners will take a position at 11:30 a.m. in $ERY 3x short oil stocks
TomTheTrader .: (11:06) stops on Traders 100% short now dropped to 1401.00
TomTheTrader .: (11:12) MDR stopped in IRA replaced with ANV here at 28.47 0.63(2.26%) 11:12AM EDT – Nasdaq Real Time Price
TomTheTrader .: (11:15) MINI short 798.90
TomTheTrader .: (11:15) stops 802.40
TomTheTrader .: (11:21) 798.70 covered shorts
TomTheTrader .: (11:21) mini flayt here
TomTheTrader .: (11:21) Rally coming
TomTheTrader .: (11:42) Traders long 200% here UWM 40.42
TomTheTrader .: (11:42) Traders stopped at 1401.00
TomTheTrader .: (11:43) MINI short here 802.00 stops 804.00
TomTheTrader .: (11:57) SIR and SMG we will take off IRA here
TomTheTrader .: (11:57) SIRI
TomTheTrader .: (11:57) 2.31
TomTheTrader .: (11:57) and SMG 41.47
TomTheTrader .: (12:00) Replace SIRI and SMG with WX and VAL at
TomTheTrader .: (12:01) WX 14.19 0.11(0.78%) 12:00PM EDT – Nasdaq Real Time Price
TomTheTrader .: (12:01) VAL at 49.35 0.28(0.57%) 12:01PM EDT – Nasdaq Real Time Price
TomTheTrader .: (12:10) MINI hit 804 stops MINI Flat
TomTheTrader .: (12:11) Again this 1406/07 SPX cash is mushy and unable to give
TomTheTrader .: (12:11) I believe we now have seen a short term top in SPX cash 1407.55 will do it for now
TomTheTrader .: (12:57) Traders 100% short here 2720.00 NQ stops 2725.00
TomTheTrader .: (13:04) 2718 taking profits in traders scalp
TomTheTrader .: (13:14) Traders will go 50% short TF here at 802.90 stops 805.00
TomTheTrader .: (13:30) 50% short NQ here at 2720.00 stops 2725.00
TomTheTrader .: (13:35) Filled
TomTheTrader .: (13:37) Mini 100% short here ES 1402.50 stops 1405.50
TomTheTrader .: (13:44) 50% covered here NQ 2717.75
TomTheTrader .: (13:45) Traders now short 50% TF
TomTheTrader .: (13:45) MINI still short 100% ES
TomTheTrader .: (13:49) 1401.50 Covered our 100% Mini short for more gains
TomTheTrader .: (14:04) 802.10 covered last shorts TF
TomTheTrader .: (14:04) we are flat Futures
TomTheTrader .: (14:05) ————————- (08/07/2012 14:04) ————————- TomTheTrader .: Stops on all IRA WINNERS at Break even
TomTheTrader .: (14:05) stops on Losers remain 8%
TomTheTrader .: (14:09) WX and XL stopped
TomTheTrader .: (14:09) In IRA
TomTheTrader .: (14:15) VAL was stopped IRA
TomTheTrader .: (14:49) BECN stopped PCLN added 40% here to IRA to get back to 200% long
TomTheTrader .: (14:50) 677.66
TomTheTrader .: (14:56) CODI IRA will add 25% long here at Compass Diversified Holdings (CODI) -NYSE14.20 0.08(0.57%) 2:56PM EDT – Nasdaq Real Time Price
TomTheTrader .: (15:04) MINI will add 50% long here ES at 1399.00 stops 1396.00
TomTheTrader .: (15:05) RIO stopped Break even IRA
TomTheTrader .: (15:13) Traders 50% long TF here 800.00 stops 798.00
TomTheTrader .: (15:14) *00.40 Scalped
TomTheTrader .: (15:14) Flat
TomTheTrader .: (15:14) 800.40 TF
TomTheTrader .: (15:14) will reenter
TomTheTrader .: (15:15) Traders 50% long TF here at 799.80 stops 798.00
TomTheTrader .: (15:15) 800.30 Take profits
TomTheTrader .: (15:18) IFF stopped IRA
TomTheTrader .: (15:18) Traders 50% long here 799.80 stops 797.80
TomTheTrader .: (15:19) Limit not filled above
TomTheTrader .: (15:19) *********
TomTheTrader .: (15:23) KSS stopped IRA
TomTheTrader .: (15:24) again long Traders 50% 799.80
TomTheTrader .: (15:24) 800.30 taking profits
TomTheTrader .: (15:36) Traders long 50% here 799.80 stops 797.80
TomTheTrader .: (15:38) 800.20 Taking profits
TomTheTrader .: (15:39) will reenter
TomTheTrader .: (15:55) Long TF here Traders25% 800.00 stops 798.00 or will sell AH
TomTheTrader .: (15:55) WE WILL MEET TONIGHT AT 9 :00 pm
TomTheTrader .: (15:59) JAZZ stopped in IRA
TomTheTrader .: (16:04) MINI will exit the es longs at 1398.00 here
TomTheTrader .: (16:04) Traders TF exited 799.40
TomTheTrader .: (20:54) We finally got OVERBOUGHT and Greedy
TomTheTrader .: (20:54) The market is not a secret anymore
TomTheTrader .: (20:54) so we will have to endure another correction
TomTheTrader .: (20:54) how big and long lasting it is
TomTheTrader .: (20:55) depends on the FEAR that occurs over the next few days
TomTheTrader .: (20:55) if the data scares the new Bulls out …we are OK
TomTheTrader .: (20:55) So don’t be afraid of the selloff …use it for opportunites
TomTheTrader .: (20:55) short it
TomTheTrader .: (20:55) look to buy Banks
TomTheTrader .: (20:55) and pick up dividend plays
TomTheTrader .: (20:56) things should get pretty sloppy…especially tomorrow
TomTheTrader .: (20:56) as we need to get OIL down
TomTheTrader .: (20:56) Gasoline down
TomTheTrader .: (20:56) and create some fear
TomTheTrader .: (20:56) a good short term play may be VXX ?
TomTheTrader .: (20:57) anyway we don’t have much going after this 120 NQ handle run in 9 sessions
TomTheTrader .: (20:58) we willtake profits tomorrow and be grateful we have ridden this Bull from 666-1407 and now a 1-3% correction
TomTheTrader .: (20:59) Again …we are overbought and call buying is too high to continue the rally
TomTheTrader .: (20:59) so we will short for a while
TomTheTrader .: (21:11) The lowest reading on the NYSE TICK on Tuesday was -619, meaning that at the moment of most intense selling, only 619 more stocks traded on a downtick than an uptick. That is extremely light – in the past five years, only 8 other days saw such light selling pressure intraday. All but one saw stocks plateau over the following several days.
TomTheTrader .: (21:13) Telling stat
TomTheTrader .: (21:13) bearish
TomTheTrader .: (21:13) The Liquidity Premium is showing that on an intermediate-term basis, traders are feeling pretty comfortable trading individual stocks instead of the most liquid exchange-traded funds
TomTheTrader .: (21:14) On an intermediate-term basis, there are a few signs that are a bit more worrying. There isn’t anything too major, and we have witnessed some positive signs as well, but it’s worth looking at the various extremes among the measures we follow.
TomTheTrader .: (21:15) One of those is the Liquidity Premium for the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100. This indicator looks at the relative volume in the exchange-traded funds that track those indexes versus volume in the underlying stocks.
TomTheTrader .: (21:15) When traders and investors are feeling queasy about the market, they tend to hide in the ETFs because they are so incredibly liquid. So we see volume increase in the ETFs compared to that in the individual stocks.
TomTheTrader .: (21:15) When traders are feeling more comfortable, they’re usually more willing to trade individual stocks instead of just the liquid ETFs. So the Liquidity Premiums measure just how much of a premium traders are placing on liquidity by looking at the relative volume between the ETFs and their underlying stocks.
TomTheTrader .: (21:15) We’ve looked at this phenomenon for other ETFs across the sectors. SPY and QQQ are the only two that have shown any promise, which is further confirmation that it’s the massive liquidity in those instruments that is so important.
TomTheTrader .: (21:16) Recently, traders have been feeling more and more comfortable trading stocks instead of ETFs. The 5-, 10- and 21-day moving averages of both Liquidity Premiums have entered extreme territory.
TomTheTrader .: (21:16) Returns after days like this were poor for several days
TomTheTrader .: (21:16) as with the CBOE and ISEE data
TomTheTrader .: (21:17) so again Caution but NOT PANIC
RedlionTrader : (8/8/2012 09:14) Who has the hot hand? Tom @ http://TTTHedge.com/Free-trial
RedlionTrader : (09:15) Twitter Trader Online = http://ttthedge.com/free-trial
TomTheTrader .: (09:29) IRA will go to cash at 9:45 a.m. prices
TomTheTrader .: (09:32) MINI short 50% here ES 1393 stops 1397.00
TomTheTrader .: (09:34) Traders 100% long SPXU here at 42.99 0.33(0.77%) 9:34AM EDT – Nasdaq Real Time Price
TomTheTrader .: (09:35) GS PCLN REXX stopped IRA
TomTheTrader .: (09:36) ANV stopped IRA
TomTheTrader .: (09:36) stops on Traders SPXU is at 3%
TomTheTrader .: (09:40) Mini will add 50% short here at 1395.00 stops 1397.00 now 100% short Mini
TomTheTrader .: (10:35) 1393.50 cover the 50% from 1395.00
TomTheTrader .: (10:35) holding 50% ES from 1393.00
TomTheTrader .: (11:12) Mini stopped at 1397.00
TomTheTrader .: (11:14) Mini short 100% here ES at 1397.50
TomTheTrader .: (11:15) 1401.50 stops
TomTheTrader .: (11:28) IRA 200% long XLF here at 14.98
TomTheTrader .: (11:56) NOONERS GOES LONG QID at NOON prices
TomTheTrader .: (11:58) Mini short 50% here NQ at 2715.00
TomTheTrader .: (11:58) stops 2720.00
TomTheTrader .: (12:43) 2711.50 covered shorts MINI
TomTheTrader .: (12:45) MINI will cover shorts in ES here at 1397.50 break even
RedlionTrader : (12:55) OUr online Twitter service is sponsored by trader DocQ.. Make sure to thank him http://ttthedge.com
TomTheTrader .: (13:36) ————————- (08/08/2012 13:30) ————————- TomTheTrader .: MINI short 25% TF here at 799.50 stop 801.50
TomTheTrader .: (13:42) 799.00 covered 25% short in MINI Flat
TomTheTrader .: (14:10) MINI long 25% here TF at 798.00
TomTheTrader .: (14:10) stops 796.00
TomTheTrader .: (14:11) TY Arome we need to get to sub 90 pretty quick ..i.e. next week
TomTheTrader .: (14:11) we got really unlucky on ERY
TomTheTrader .: (14:12) and the timing of the run in oil
TomTheTrader .: (14:12) but still short the monster CL here via USO puts
TomTheTrader .: (15:17) 799.00 MINI flat PROFITS
TomTheTrader .: (15:27) Mini short 50% here NQ at 2712.00 stops 2717.00
TomTheTrader .: (15:29) stops at Break even 2712.00
TomTheTrader .: (15:30) We will meet tonight at 9:00pm TY for coming out at night
TomTheTrader .: (15:30) see you then
TomTheTrader .: (15:30) http://www.ttthedge.com
TomTheTrader .: (15:33) stopped at 2712 NQ break even
TomTheTrader .: (15:41) MINI long 50% here TF at 797.70 stops 795.50
TomTheTrader .: (15:46) stops up to 796.50 MINI
TomTheTrader .: (15:48) Mini taking profits here at 798.80
TomTheTrader .: (15:51) fill here at 798.50
TomTheTrader .: (20:53) The S&P 500 managed to rise for a fourth straight day to close at a multi-month high, though with the lowest gain among the four days.
TomTheTrader .: (20:53) Since 2000, that has led to a lower close within three sessions on 20 out of 26 occurrences,
TomTheTrader .: (20:53) The Farrell Sentiment Index, a rather obscure long-term indicator of investor sentiment, is close to giving a buy signal.
TomTheTrader .: (20:54) Wednesday, money manager and market commentator Doug Kass mentioned the Farrell Sentiment Indicator.
TomTheTrader .: (20:54) This is something we’ve discussed before. It has a good record, and was close to triggering again for the first time in several years.
TomTheTrader .: (20:55) The indicator takes the percentage of bulls in the AAII survey of individual investors, and divides it by the percentage of bears, plus half the percentage of neutrals.
TomTheTrader .: (20:55) It then uses a 10-week moving average to smooth out the week-to-week gyrations.
TomTheTrader .: (20:55) A buy signal for stocks is given when that 10-week average drops below 0.50 and subsequently turns higher.
TomTheTrader .: (20:56) The lowest the 10-week average got recently was 0.51 a few weeks ago, and it has since turned ever-so-slightly higher.
TomTheTrader .: (20:56) Essentially a BUY signal …nitpickers beware !
TomTheTrader .: (20:57) he S&P 500′s returns going forward were very good, with the sweet spot being three months later. In that case, every one showed a positive return and a median gain that was well above a random one.
TomTheTrader .: (20:57) Generally, when investor sentiment reaches a pessimistic extreme and then begins to turn higher,
TomTheTrader .: (20:58) we see consistently positive returns going forward, and there isn’t any particular reason to expect that it’s different this time.
TomTheTrader .: (20:58) Bottom line is the sentiment has been bullish and now it is Neutral …. which is actually good
TomTheTrader .: (20:59) as new money and new sources look for greed to build over the years of a new Bull market
TomTheTrader .: (20:59) right now we are short term overbought and getting “Heavy”
TomTheTrader .: (21:00) I will stay leveraged long Banks in the IRA and short the swing and day trade until
TomTheTrader .: (21:00) conditions improve
TomTheTrader .: (21:00) TY for being here TTT
TomTheTrader .: (8/9/2012 09:14) ————————- (08/08/2012 09:34) ————————- TomTheTrader .: Traders 100% long SPXU here at 42.99 0.33(0.77%) 9:34AM EDT – Nasdaq Real Time Price ————————- (08/08/2012 09:35) ————————- TomTheTrader .: GS PCLN REXX stopped IRATomTheTrader .: ANV stopped IRATomTheTrader .: stops on Traders SPXU is at 3%
TomTheTrader .: (10:20) Mini will short ES here 50% at 1402.00 stops 1405.00
TomTheTrader .: (10:22) 1400.50 covered shorts Mini
TomTheTrader .: (10:22) Scalped profits
TomTheTrader .: (10:24) this is how we test a short term top
TomTheTrader .: (10:24) limit short 50% 1402.00 stops 1406.00 MINI
TomTheTrader .: (10:50) stops on ES at 1406 50%
TomTheTrader .: (11:03) 1400.50 Locked in Profits MINI
TomTheTrader .: (11:03) Limit 50% short MINI ES 1402.00 stops 1406.00
TomTheTrader .: (11:09) NOONERS will move into EUO at Noon prices and exit QID
TomTheTrader .: (11:12) MINI now short 50% here at 1402.00 again stops 1406.00
TomTheTrader .: (11:34) cover MINI shorts here 1400.0
TomTheTrader .: (11:39) MINI flat and will reenter limit short 50% at 1402.00 limit ES
TomTheTrader .: (11:39) Again a limit short 1402.00 on again as we take profits on every pullback
TomTheTrader .: (11:51) MINI long 50% here TF at 799.80
TomTheTrader .: (11:52) stops 797.80
TomTheTrader .: (12:10) Nooners QID to EUO
TomTheTrader .: (12:10) prices in
TomTheTrader .: (12:11) and we are exited QID and into EUO
TomTheTrader .: (12:13) stops risen on TF long to 798.80
TomTheTrader .: (12:21) stopped at 798.80 MINI
TomTheTrader .: (12:23) MINI long 50% here 1397.00 stops 1394.00
TomTheTrader .: (12:41) 1398.75 Mini Take PROFITS filled
TomTheTrader .: (12:41) and Flat
TomTheTrader .: (13:07) MINI http://finviz.com/futures_charts.ashx?t=LB
TomTheTrader .: (14:16) MINI 50% long here 800.00 stops 798.00
TomTheTrader .: (14:17) Taking 800.10 here to official
TomTheTrader .: (14:25) Taking profits in MINI here TF at 801.10
TomTheTrader .: (14:42) Limit to short 50% TF ES here still on at 1402 ES MINI
TomTheTrader .: (14:55) Above TF should be excluded
TomTheTrader .: (14:55) ES short limit at 1402.00 stops 1406 limit
TomTheTrader .: (15:12) Mini will short 50% here TF at 801.50 stops 803.50
TomTheTrader .: (15:32) cover shorts break even mini here out flat
TomTheTrader .: (15:32) 801.50
TomTheTrader .: (15:32) Rally coming here to HOD
TomTheTrader .: (15:32) risk will get to 10 on close !
TomTheTrader .: (15:34) taking a long Mini here at 1400.00 stops 1396.00
TomTheTrader .: (15:34) 50%
TomTheTrader .: (15:36) we will reverse short on our limit at 1402 ES
TomTheTrader .: (16:00) 1400.75 out MINI
TomTheTrader .: (16:03) 9:00pm Night Moves with TTT be here !
TomTheTrader .: (16:03) data central 9:00pm est