TomTheTrader .: (8/23/2012 09:33) MINI long 25% here TF 808.20
TomTheTrader .: (09:34) stops 806.20
TomTheTrader .: (09:35) Traders long 50% here 1405.50 stops 1402.00
TomTheTrader .: (09:36) MINI stopped 25% loss at 806.20
TomTheTrader .: (09:42) Traders profits here at 1407.50
TomTheTrader .: (09:42) Traders and Mini Flat looking long
TomTheTrader .: (09:46) Traders long 50% here at 1406.00
TomTheTrader .: (09:47) stops 1403.00
TomTheTrader .: (09:56) MINI long 25% here TF 805.80
TomTheTrader .: (09:56) stops 803.80
TomTheTrader .: (10:01) 806.50 MINI Profits
TomTheTrader .: (10:07) MINI long here 25% TF 805.80 stops 803.80
TomTheTrader .: (10:12) ProShares UltraPro S&P500 (UPRO) -NYSEArca83.72 1.62(1.90%) 10:12AM EDT – Nasdaq Real Time Price
TomTheTrader .: (10:12) Traders 200% long UPRO
TomTheTrader .: (10:13) Traders was stopped 1402.00
TomTheTrader .: (10:18) BOIL long 50% IRA here 42.20
TomTheTrader .: (10:18) 42.14
TomTheTrader .: (10:18) was just filled pretty illiquid
TomTheTrader .: (10:19) 20 K shares today
TomTheTrader .: (10:21) Mini long 25% here at 804.80 now 50% long same stops
TomTheTrader .: (10:21) 805.30 Taking off just 25%
TomTheTrader .: (10:21) still 25% long TF
TomTheTrader .: (10:23) MINI taking last 25% off here at 806.00 Flat
TomTheTrader .: (10:51) CLF acting well
TomTheTrader .: (10:51) TAKEOVER ?
TomTheTrader .: (10:54) UPRO we will put stops in at break even here 83.72
TomTheTrader .: (10:54) Traders
TomTheTrader .: (11:03) MINI going 25% long here at 806.20 stops 804.20
TomTheTrader .: (11:11) 806.80 out of MINI
TomTheTrader .: (11:12) Profits
TomTheTrader .: (11:34) Nooners will swap into UWM here at NOON !!!!
TomTheTrader .: (12:02) MINI scalping long here TF at 806.00 stops 804.00 50%
TomTheTrader .: (12:07) UPRO and BIDU stopped out
TomTheTrader .: (12:09) we will reenter 25% long IRA with FAS at 95.60 swap FAS for BIDU
TomTheTrader .: (12:10) Traders long 100% TNA here at 55.11
TomTheTrader .: (12:10) 54.70 stops
TomTheTrader .: (12:11) Traders long 100% ES here at 1403.00 stops 1400.00
TomTheTrader .: (12:12) MINI long 50% here TF at 804.70
TomTheTrader .: (12:12) stops 802.70
TomTheTrader .: (12:41) 805.20 Profits MINI
TomTheTrader .: (12:42) Traders lock in profits 1404.00
TomTheTrader .: (12:47) Traders will go long 50% here TF at 805.00 stops 803.00
TomTheTrader .: (12:49) MINI long 100% here ES at 1403.00 stops 1400.00
TomTheTrader .: (13:14) 803..00 and 1400 stopped mini and traders
TomTheTrader .: (13:24) Traders 200% long UPRO here at ProShares UltraPro S&P500 (UPRO) -NYSEArca83.24 2.10(2.46%) 1:23PM EDT – Nasdaq Real Time Price
TomTheTrader .: (13:24) MINI 100% long ES here at 1399.25
TomTheTrader .: (13:24) stops 1395.00
TomTheTrader .: (13:29) We love the action
TomTheTrader .: (13:30) pretty good stuff
TomTheTrader .: (13:54) 1400.50 MINI Profits
TomTheTrader .: (14:04) MINI long 50% here ES 1399.50 stops 1396.50
TomTheTrader .: (14:09) Mini took profits there at 1400.50
TomTheTrader .: (14:21) MINI 100% long ES at 1399.50 stops 1397.50
TomTheTrader .: (14:37) 1400.75 MINI locks in Profits here
TomTheTrader .: (14:54) Traders exit TNA and UPRO here at 3:00pm prices
TomTheTrader .: (14:54) MINI 100% short here ES at 1401.50
TomTheTrader .: (14:54) stops 1403.50
TomTheTrader .: (15:01) 1400.75 exited MINI Flat
TomTheTrader .: (15:02) TomTheTrader .: 55.22 TNATomTheTrader .: 83.50 TomTheTrader .: Upro
TomTheTrader .: (15:03) IRA 50% BOIL out here at 43.64
TomTheTrader .: (15:22) MINI long here 805.50 stops 803.50
TomTheTrader .: (15:22) 50%
TomTheTrader .: (15:22) Traders long 100% here ES 1401.00
TomTheTrader .: (15:22) stops 1397.00
TomTheTrader .: (15:24) MINI adding 50% long TF here at 804.20
TomTheTrader .: (15:25) Now 100% long stops at 802.20 on 50%
TomTheTrader .: (15:25) will close on the 4:15 pm ES close
TomTheTrader .: (15:53) MINI and Traders Flat at 4:15 pm
TomTheTrader .: (15:56) WE will meet tonight at 9:00pm for a Chalk Talk …we will send out our e-mails and updates
TomTheTrader .: (15:56) See you then !!!!!
TomTheTrader .: (16:14) TF closed 804..4
TomTheTrader .: (16:15) ES 1400.000
TomTheTrader .: (16:15) 804.80
TomTheTrader .: (16:15) tf
TomTheTrader .: (16:15) ***
TomTheTrader .: (16:24) TF 804.80 was 4:15 PM average as was ES 1400.00
TomTheTrader .: (16:24) WE WILL MEET TONIGHT AT 9:00pm EST
TomTheTrader .: (16:24) http://www.ttthedge.com
TomTheTrader .: (20:26) The S&P500 may be soaring to new 2012 highs, and has its all time highs within short squeeze distance, yet paradoxically this is arguably the worst possible news to the cadre of US hedge fund managers used to beating the market year after year, thus justifying their (increasingly more unsustainable) 2 and 20 fees. The reason: according to just a released report quantifying hedge fund performance so far in 2012, with an average return of 4.6% as of August 3 compared to a 12% return for the S&P, a pathetic 11% of all hedge funds are beating S&P year to date. This is the worst yearly aggregate S&P 500 underperformance by the hedge fund industry in history, and also explains why the smooth sailing in the S&P500 belies the fact that nearly every single hedge fund manager (and at least 89% of all) is currently panicking like never before knowing very well there are only 4 more months left to beat the S&P or face terminal redemption requests.
TomTheTrader .: (20:37) Even with that …following the cash : mutual find OUTFLOWS are at record high as the public shuns the Bull
TomTheTrader .: (20:38) Individual investors are showing above-average optimism for the first time in four months. That’s a surprisingly rare occurrence, especially with the S&P 500 so near a 52-week high
TomTheTrader .: (20:39) For the first time in more than four months, the Bull Ratio in the AAII survey climbed above its long-term average of 57% this week. We’d have to go back to late March / early April to see the ratio as high as it is now.
TomTheTrader .: (20:39) It has been unusual to see them this apathetic for this long. There were only seven other times that the Bull Ratio remained below 57% for at least four months, and of those, only three occurred when the S&P 500 was at or near a 52-week high (the ones in 1987, 1991 and 1993).
TomTheTrader .: (20:40) Of those three similar occurrences, the S&P managed to do pretty well over the following 2-3 months, tacking on at least a few percentage points without losing much in the process. One of those, though (from July 1987) soon succumbed to a major decline.
TomTheTrader .: (20:40) For what it’s worth, the remaining four instances were perfectly mixed, with two leading to excellent gains and two leading to terrible losses.
TomTheTrader .: (20:41) Other than a very brief foray into mild overbought territory, the vast majority of our indicators have been motionless or twisting around in neutral territory. No wonder- the S&P is already back to where it was on August 7th. So we’ve had a market with almost historically low volatility, that hasn’t moved anywhere directionally for more than two weeks. That’s not the kind of activity that generates sentiment extremes, so we continue to see little edge among the measures we follow. Another down day or two should finally push several of the guides into “excessive pessimism” territory, though.
TomTheTrader .: (20:41) This still sets up for our Labor Day Rally if we can selloff a bit more into Monday
TomTheTrader .: (20:43) and hold on to key support at 1385-96SPX cash …not what we had hoped for but still a play long on the dips is in the works …these next 2 days will be telling !
TomTheTrader .: (20:45) From InsiderScore.com: Insiders continue to display a Sell Bias as sentiment amongst Russell 2000 has fallen in-line with that of their S&P 500 peers (Russell 2000 insiders were previously displaying Neutral sentiment). Selling levels are moderately high at present. Buying volume is respectable but we’re continuing to see a number of the same buyers (often 10% Owners or large executive shareholders) and there’s an overall lack of quality buying.
TomTheTrader .: (20:46) Insiders are still suffering from low revenues and the worry over the fiscal cliff
TomTheTrader .: (20:46) we need a strong buying binge
TomTheTrader .: (20:46) The DJIA has declined four straight days after (almost) setting a 52-week high. In the past 30 years, that has occurred 28 times, and none of them marked an important market peak, with the Dow closing at a new 52-week high an average of 14 trading days later (and no longer than 86 days). Prior to the past 30 years, 17 out of 57 occurrences marked a lasting market peak.
TomTheTrader .: (20:59) So we have a choice for Long Bulls…keep the faith and hold long with stops …or add a hedge to weather the storm or just go to cash or short ?
TomTheTrader .: (20:59) I personally will let the market tell me what to do as the tape fails I will go to cash and short and wait til we have some extremes and use them as we always do
TomTheTrader .: (8/24/2012 09:31) Traders 50% long ES here at 1397.00 stops 1393.00
TomTheTrader .: (09:31) MINI long 25% here TF 802.00
TomTheTrader .: (09:32) 802.70 profits taken MINI
TomTheTrader .: (09:33) X stopped out replaced with SSO here at 9:33 am
TomTheTrader .: (09:35) MINI long 50% here at 802.40
TomTheTrader .: (09:35) 803.10 out TF
TomTheTrader .: (09:35) Mini will reenter long
TomTheTrader .: (09:37) MM is stopped and replaced by DAL here 25%
TomTheTrader .: (09:38) at 9:37 a.m. prices
TomTheTrader .: (09:39) MINI 50% long here at 802.00
TomTheTrader .: (09:40) 802.50 MINI flat Profits
TomTheTrader .: (09:44) MINI Long 50% here TF 802.00
TomTheTrader .: (09:45) MINI PROFITS here at 802.50
TomTheTrader .: (10:00) we will add to IRA 25% each at 10:00am prices DB TGI and HCA
TomTheTrader .: (10:00) DB TGI and HCA 25% positions
TomTheTrader .: (10:01) MINI long here at 801.00
TomTheTrader .: (10:01) 25%
TomTheTrader .: (10:01) stopps 799.50
TomTheTrader .: (10:01) 802.00 MINI Flat Profits
TomTheTrader .: (10:05) MINI long 25% here TF at 801.20
TomTheTrader .: (10:05) stops 799.50
TomTheTrader .: (10:07) 802.20 MINI profits out
TomTheTrader .: (10:09) MINI long 50% here TF at 801.40
TomTheTrader .: (10:10) MINI 802.00 exited MINI
TomTheTrader .: (10:12) TRADERS TAKE profits here 1399.00 Profits
TomTheTrader .: (10:12) filled and flat Goof run here this morning
TomTheTrader .: (10:12) 1399.25
TomTheTrader .: (11:29) NOONERS GOES TO CASH PER E-MAIL
TomTheTrader .: (11:29) 41.36 UWM
TomTheTrader .: (12:03) Traders 25% long TF here at 805.80
TomTheTrader .: (12:03) stops 804.00
TomTheTrader .: (12:06) Traders 806.80 Traders Profits
TomTheTrader .: (12:14) Nooners will reenter long TBT here into Monday NOONERS at 12:30 pm EST
TomTheTrader .: (12:15) Traders long 25% here TF at 805.70
TomTheTrader .: (12:15) stops 804.00
TomTheTrader .: (12:16) 806.20 Profits taken Traders
TomTheTrader .: (13:20) MHOin the IRA we will lock in profits here at the HOD 19.31
TomTheTrader .: (13:40) IN THE IRA we will lock in more profits here on the HOD $SSO sold here at 58.72
TomTheTrader .: (14:07) MINI 50% long here TF at 807.30
TomTheTrader .: (14:11) Traders long 50% here NQ here at 2778.00
TomTheTrader .: (14:13) 807.70
TomTheTrader .: (14:13) profits taken
TomTheTrader .: (14:13) MINI Flat
TomTheTrader .: (14:14) Traders stops at 2774.00
TomTheTrader .: (14:15) MINI long here at TF 807.20 stops
TomTheTrader .: (14:15) 805.20
TomTheTrader .: (14:15) 50%
TomTheTrader .: (14:16) 807.60 locked in profits
TomTheTrader .: (14:17) MINI flat will reenter
TomTheTrader .: (14:24) 2780 took Traders profits
TomTheTrader .: (14:24) will reenter TY
TomTheTrader .: (14:26) $ 20 per point NQ
TomTheTrader .: (14:26) 5 ticks inside the point
TomTheTrader .: (14:39) MINI long here 807.40
TomTheTrader .: (14:39) 50%
TomTheTrader .: (14:40) stops 805.00
TomTheTrader .: (14:51) Traders long here at 25% 2776.25 stops 2772.00
TomTheTrader .: (15:08) Traders long 50% here ES at 1407.00 stops 1403.00
TomTheTrader .: (15:13) 807.90 Profits in TF
TomTheTrader .: (15:14) 2778.25 out
TomTheTrader .: (15:15) 1408.25 WINNER WINNER CHICKEN DINNER
TomTheTrader .: (15:17) MINI TRADERS Flat
TomTheTrader .: (8/26/2012 19:26) Don’t know if Twitter trades have been going out , we will 2x check Monday ????
TomTheTrader .: (8/27/2012 11:16) IRA will take a 75% position in ZF Zweig Fund at 12.23
TomTheTrader .: (11:18) Traders will take a 50% short position in ES here 1413.50 stops 1415.50
TomTheTrader .: (11:19) MINI will take a 50% short position in TF here at 813.20
TomTheTrader .: (11:19) stops 815.20
TomTheTrader .: (11:20) 812.50 covered MINI shorts
TomTheTrader .: (11:30) Taking profits IRA profits in DB DB is at 35.00
TomTheTrader .: (11:30) 25% position in DB out with nice nice profits
TomTheTrader .: (11:30) still love DB and all european financials
TomTheTrader .: (11:30) the next big bull in European banks ?
TomTheTrader .: (11:30) I think so
TomTheTrader .: (11:57) MINI will go long here TF 811.20
TomTheTrader .: (11:57) 50%
TomTheTrader .: (11:57) stops 809.50
TomTheTrader .: (12:02) 811.80 TF exit long PROFITS
TomTheTrader .: (12:19) 811.20 50% long here MINI
TomTheTrader .: (12:20) stops 809.20
TomTheTrader .: (12:21) Traders will lock in Profits and COVER OUR SHORTS at 1412.50
TomTheTrader .: (12:22) Traders Flat
TomTheTrader .: (12:44) stop TF longs now at 810.00
TomTheTrader .: (13:25) TF was stopped at 810 earlier
TomTheTrader .: (14:00) TF long here 25% at MINI 808.50
TomTheTrader .: (14:00) stops 806.50
TomTheTrader .: (14:17) Traders long 50% here ES at 1411.00 stops 1408.00
TomTheTrader .: (14:27) 809 taking profits MINI
TomTheTrader .: (14:31) Locked in Profits here at 1412.00
TomTheTrader .: (14:32) MINI and Traders Flat
TomTheTrader .: (14:32) looking to add a 200% long overnight position in SSO or UWM
TomTheTrader .: (14:32) will update
TomTheTrader .: (15:13) MINI long here TF at 808.50
TomTheTrader .: (15:14) 50%
TomTheTrader .: (15:14) stops 806.50
TomTheTrader .: (15:15) Traders will add 100% long here UWM at ProShares Ultra Russell2000 (UWM) -NYSEArca41.35 0.20(0.49%) 3:14PM EDT – Nasdaq Real Time Price
TomTheTrader .: (15:16) 41.35 UWM Traders Overnight longs
TomTheTrader .: (15:16) stops at 4%
TomTheTrader .: (15:26) Mini took profits at 809.00 Flat
TomTheTrader .: (15:26) will reenter
TomTheTrader .: (15:30) MINI long 50% here TF 808.50
TomTheTrader .: (15:30) stops 806.50
TomTheTrader .: (15:58) MINI take off position here in MINI 50% 808.60
TomTheTrader .: (15:58) mini flat
TomTheTrader .: (16:07) HCA TGI and FAS sold her at 4:15
TomTheTrader .: (16:07) We will be max long IRA
TomTheTrader .: (16:10) We will take avg prices from 4:00pm til 4:15 pm in IRA to make sure we get a accurate fill
TomTheTrader .: (16:11) on $HCA $TGI and $FAS