TomTheTrader .: (9/19/2012 09:06) ———————- (09/19/2012 08:58) ———————- TomTheTrader .: Oil getting hit off the highs as we expected TomTheTrader .: this correction in oil is due to Saudis help and we need it longer term TomTheTrader .: ES 1457.50 is short term resistance TomTheTrader .: Markets should have “Problems” on every rally , until they don’t TomTheTrader .: Lots of action in Gold , I am beginning a short position in Gold and Silver ———————- (09/19/2012 09:01) ———————- TomTheTrader .: And Currencies short the POUND
TomTheTrader .: (09:06) Japan aggressively easing
TomTheTrader .: (09:06) China soon
TomTheTrader .: (09:07) GLW upgrade
TomTheTrader .: (09:11) FEB 3rd MOMO top
TomTheTrader .: (09:11) and our ECO Macro sell signal
TomTheTrader .: (09:11) many cyclicals crashed 50-80%
TomTheTrader .: (09:13) 10 day NYSE Up Issues Ratio hit new high with SPX Friday then exhausted
TomTheTrader .: (09:14) 64% of all issues on NYSE closed positive 10 days in a row
TomTheTrader .: (09:14) rare buy signal
TomTheTrader .: (11:24) 1457.50 short 50% Traders
TomTheTrader .: (11:27) Mini short 50% here at NQ 2858.00
TomTheTrader .: (11:27) stops NQ 2865.00 Mini
TomTheTrader .: (11:27) 1451.50 Traders
TomTheTrader .: (11:28) 1461.50 stops !
TomTheTrader .: (11:32) 2856.00 covered NQ shorts Profits
TomTheTrader .: (11:34) Covered 1456.50 ES Flat Traders Profits
TomTheTrader .: (11:42) 1457.50 short 50% here Traders
TomTheTrader .: (11:43) stops 1461.50
TomTheTrader .: (11:49) MINI short 50% here NQ at 2858.00
TomTheTrader .: (11:49) stops 2865.00
TomTheTrader .: (11:55) Nooners exiting SDS and entering UYG at Noon prices
TomTheTrader .: (11:55) E-mail sent
TomTheTrader .: (12:04) Traders PROFITS here 1456.50
TomTheTrader .: (12:05) MINI profits here 2856.00
TomTheTrader .: (12:13) 2858.00 short 50% mini stops 2865.00
TomTheTrader .: (12:23) Traders short 50% here ES 1457.50
TomTheTrader .: (12:26) stops 1461.50
TomTheTrader .: (12:29) 1459.00 we are “Pegged out ” on Risk as high as we get daytrade
TomTheTrader .: (12:49) Traders exit shorts at 1457.50
TomTheTrader .: (12:49) Break even
TomTheTrader .: (12:50) Stops on MINI now at 2863.00
TomTheTrader .: (12:59) Traders will reenter shorts agin here at 1458.50 stops 1452.50 ESZ12 50%
TomTheTrader .: (12:59) again short 1458.50 ES Traders
TomTheTrader .: (12:59) stops 1462.50 !
TomTheTrader .: (13:08) 1457.50 locked in profits Traders
TomTheTrader .: (13:13) MINI NQ stops now at 2861.00
TomTheTrader .: (13:31) Mini got stoped 2861.00
TomTheTrader .: (14:20) Traders will short 50% here 1457.50
TomTheTrader .: (14:20) stops 1461.50
TomTheTrader .: (14:22) MINI will short 50% here NQ at 2862 stops 2867.00
TomTheTrader .: (14:51) HIGH RISK DAY TRADE AGAIN
TomTheTrader .: (14:52) 9
TomTheTrader .: (15:31) 1456.50 cover for Profits Traders
TomTheTrader .: (15:34) Lower stops NQ to breakeven 2864.00
TomTheTrader .: (15:35) Now out 2862.00 Breakeven
TomTheTrader .: (15:56) Tonight 9:00pm EST
TomTheTrader .: (15:57) Please bring a friend and a glass o wine
TomTheTrader .: (15:57) enjoy
TomTheTrader .: (15:57) TY for today !
TomTheTrader .: (15:57) TTT
TomTheTrader .: (21:01) Discount brokerage firms’ stocks have taken a hit, as they report a big drop in customer activity. E-Trade has seen its average daily trading volume drop nearly 40% over the past year to one of the lowest levels since 2005
TomTheTrader .: (21:01) Of those newsletters expressing a definite opinion, 69% are expecting prices to rise according to Investor’s Intelligence. That’s the most since March, but is still 10% lower than the highest reading of the past three years…
TomTheTrader .: (21:02) despite the S&P 500 trading at a three-year high. Of the 44 other weeks this has happened in the past 20 years (when the data “calmed down”), the S&P was higher a year later 89% of the time with a median return of +14.3%. Its maximum loss at its worst point averaged just -1.1% compared to a maximum gain that averaged +14.9%.
TomTheTrader .: (21:02) In the short-term, our indicators remain essentially motionless. Typically, it’s a good sign when the short-term becomes as overbought as it did last week and prices don’t retrace much, so price and breadth are still acting well. The biggest risk is evidence of overheated sentiment (see the large list of extremes below). The last time it was this skewed was December 2010, and stocks managed to march steadily higher for a couple of more months. A couple of closes below the 20-day average on the S&P 500 would be a good indication that momentum has left the market and raise the probability that this overheated sentiment will lead to a 3% – 8% correction.
TomTheTrader .: (21:02) From a price action, momentum and breadth point of view, the prospects for stocks look good. That’s especially the case longer-term (more than three months), according to many of the studies we’ve looked at recently. But on September 19th we recorded no bullish (for the market) indicators among the ones we follow, and more than 40% bearish ones. That has consistently led to rocky markets in a 1-3 month time frame. The major exception was December 2010 when stocks managed to creep higher for a couple of more months. That may happen this time around as well, so we’ll be looking for a crack in the price action, such as consecutive closes below the 20-day average in the S&P 500, to raise the likelihood of an imminent and sustained correction.
TomTheTrader .: (21:03) The surge to new highs on September 14th caused a spike in the number of indicators sitting in extreme territory, and they are widely dispersed among our indicator groupings. Nearly 40% of our indicators are in bearish (for the market) territory, the highest percentage since January 2011. During a secular downtrend this would be an extremely worrisome sign, but with a market hitting multi-year highs, it is less so. Risk of an extended correction would rise if the price action becomes more “toppy” than we’ve seen.
TomTheTrader .: (21:03) The surge to new highs on September 7th pushed several sectors into overbought territory. As of that date, 9 out of 13 sectors were overbought, the highest degree since February 24th. That’s not necessarily a bad longer-term sign since it shows broad-based buying interest, especially with the market trading at new highs. It would be a much more worrisome signal during a downtrend or stagnant market environment.
TomTheTrader .: (9/20/2012 09:34) MINI will buy TF long here 25% at 846.50
TomTheTrader .: (09:35) Traders will buy ES 25% long 1447.50
TomTheTrader .: (09:40) Traders will take off hedges in Traders at 9:45 am prices
TomTheTrader .: (09:40) SDS QID and any puts
TomTheTrader .: (09:41) stops MINI 844.00 Traders 1443.50
TomTheTrader .: (09:44) 13.42 SDS and QID 26.70
TomTheTrader .: (09:50) 844.00 stop
TomTheTrader .: (09:54) long TF here 25% at 842.70
TomTheTrader .: (09:55) MINI
TomTheTrader .: (09:56) Traders long here 25% ES at 1444.25
TomTheTrader .: (10:01) 844.00 TF lock in profits MINI Flat
TomTheTrader .: (10:02) 25% off 1446.25 taking profits
TomTheTrader .: (10:02) still long 25% from 1447.50
TomTheTrader .: (10:02) stops 1443.50
TomTheTrader .: (10:39) 1450.00 Traders Flat PROFITS
TomTheTrader .: (12:07) 1452.50 Traders 50% shrt
TomTheTrader .: (12:08) Short Traders with stops at 1456.50
TomTheTrader .: (12:11) Cover Traders shorts 1451.25
TomTheTrader .: (12:28) Mini 25% long 1450.00 stops 1444.00
TomTheTrader .: (12:30) Traders long 25% TF here at 846.20
TomTheTrader .: (12:31) stops 844
TomTheTrader .: (12:35) traders out 846.80
RedlionTrader : (12:43) Tom’s 2012 list setup on Jan 1st: http://ttthedge.com/our-watch-list/
TomTheTrader .: (13:25) TomTheTrader .: ***ANOTHER CALL BUYING ALERT !
TomTheTrader .: (13:25) They are getting Crazy again look to short
TomTheTrader .: (13:29) Take PROFITS here 1451.00
TomTheTrader .: (13:29) MINI will short 2852.00 25% NQ
TomTheTrader .: (13:31) 2856.00 Stops in
TomTheTrader .: (13:45) Stops dropped here to NQ 2854.00 MINI
TomTheTrader .: (13:48) stops down to 2853
TomTheTrader .: (14:02) stops down to 2851 now MINI
TomTheTrader .: (14:10) 2851 stopped on the shorts
TomTheTrader .: (14:10) profits
TomTheTrader .: (14:13) Mini will short 50% here NQ at 2852.00 stops 2856.00
TomTheTrader .: (14:13) Traders short 25% TF here at 847.50
TomTheTrader .: (14:13) stops 850.00 TF
TomTheTrader .: (14:20) 846.90 Profits taken
TomTheTrader .: (14:24) Our @ TTT SELL Signal Ends With 3% Losses on Broad market + and Transports http://www.ttthedge.com
TomTheTrader .: (14:27) Traders short here 50% TF here at 848.10 stops 850.50
TomTheTrader .: (14:39) 847.60 Taking Profits
TomTheTrader .: (14:52) Traders short 50% here TF 848.00
TomTheTrader .: (14:52) stops 850.00
TomTheTrader .: (15:12) 2856.00 NQ was stopped MINI loss High print Stop hunt
TomTheTrader .: (15:25) MINI short 50% here ES at 1454.50 stops at 4:15pm
TomTheTrader .: (15:38) 1453.00 lock in profits
TomTheTrader .: (15:38) MINI Flat
TomTheTrader .: (15:39) 847.50 locking in profits here Traders
TomTheTrader .: (15:57) 9:00pm EST we will meet “ALL THE THINGS TTT HATES “
TomTheTrader .: (15:58) I will do a POST game a t 1
TomTheTrader .: (15:58) 4;15pm also