For more information on Tides read the column from: 7/22
Waiting for the tide to change, we need a slack tide first
(It is in the ES discussion section).
Around the Globe
- Asia – CLOSED
- Shanghai (China) +0.24%
- Hang Seng (Hong Kong) -0.79%
- Nikkei (Japan)-0.24%
Europe as of 6:10am EDT
- DAX (Germany) -0.10%
- FTSE (UK) +0.09%
Today’s Economic News:
Nasty looking numbers out of Europe for PMI. The Chinese number was a nice upside surprise.
Quote of the day:
Nothing is impossible for the man who doesn’t have to do it himself. – A. H. Weiler
Current Breadth Readings: (click here to see all our breadth charts)
For today we are going to post one of our trenders, since both have gone neutral on us. A one day red, if we get some downside follow through today we will have a full out bearish read on the trenders.
ES SP500 Futures Comments:
Short: 1353
Long: 1322
We have turned neutral with a bias toward bearish. We think we could be on the edge of something rather scary in the form of a quick trip below 1300. There is talk about more intervention, that of course could change how the boards are setup. Right now those boards are setup with the dollar about to make a bullish breakout above 84, bonds ready to break to new highs, and price struggling from a third peak (or attempt to make new highs). We think the equity market is exhausted at this point and needs to reset and that reset area is somewhere in the 1260 area. That is the plan we are working on today and starting to flesh out. If we see a monster rally, intervention, the bond bubble break, or a rescue of the Euro, we will throw that plan away.
Our plan is to be flushed out and ready to go mid-August, with a nice recovery toward the end of August, a struggling September, and a nice October, November, and December. That is our long range view, which is fun to draw, but we are short term traders.
On that short term note, today we like 1353. We think that could be a turning point back to the 1332 area. If we hit 1322 first, we would look for a bounce there. Our bias is toward shorting rallies, but there should be plenty of upside opportunity for the quick and nimble until we really begin to unravel. That would begin with a break of the 1320 reversal candle from 7/12.
Sell the rips, and they should be decent size for this week.
US Dollar DX Futures Comments:
It looks inevitable, unless there is some type of intervention – the dollar is about to cross the 84 line on its way to 86.50.
TLT Twenty Year Bond ETF Comments:
Our chart is a little small today, but here is the point: this chart is on the brink of breaking up to the 135.50 area. We think that is possible at this point between now and mid August.
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