Around the Globe
Today’s Economic News:
The USA is hogging the economic calendar today with much news, initial claims, and PPI, but the grand-daddy of them all? The FOMC statement. Read more in my notes.
Quote of the day:
I belong to no organized party. I am a Democrat. – Will Rogers
Current Breadth Readings: (click here to see all our breadth charts)
This is one of the trenders we follow to keep us in line and it has never wavered from the June bottom. We look for a cross of the 15 DMA as a topping signal, much like April this year. It doesn’t get you the top, but it does help keep you out of trouble. That distance between the index and the 15DMA is pretty extreme, one would expect some corrective behavior in here. But if the 15 DMA holds, it ain’t over yet.
ES SP500 Futures Comments: [DEC! Roll Today]
We’re not fooling around and we are just going to roll the contract today like everyone wants us to. By mid-day tomorrow, the volume will be in the DEC contract and there is enough volume now to trade. So with adjustments, our sell zone has moved to 1437 and long to 1407 now.
Doing technicals today is tough as there is a pending news story. That, of course, is the FQED announcement today. The markets have priced in action, I am inclined to think there will be strong talk like we are narrowing down the action, or we need congressional approval, or some stalling dovish talk with harsh defense tones. I could be wrong, but the best trick the FQED has is time as time heals all economic recessions. Of course I don’t know, don’t even have a clue… but we do know that the market is expecting a helicopter visit from Ben. We need to be prepared for that outcome. On the other hand, there are plenty of shorts here that could get trapped out too.
I would stand back and trade the aftermath, protect long term holding with puts, and wait until you see the whites of their eyes or here the helicopter coming.
US Dollar DX Futures Comments:
We have rolled the US Dollar also. There is major support around the 79 area, we would expect to eventually get down there, and it does appear to be in a bit of a hurry now, but I would expect just a wee bit of sideways before touchdown.
TLT Twenty Year Bond ETF Comments:
TLT continues to move downward, flushing out money into equities. The 121 band is the next downside test with 124 to the upside. 118.50 is our ultimate downside target.
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